Inevitable War Between the US and Iran

Tensions between the US and Iran continue to mount. After threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, thereby choking off oil to the West, Iran has begun a 10-day naval exercise, during which various long-range and short-range missiles will be fired. Explaining the rationale for the exercise, Iran is saying that the "drills are defensive in nature and intended to convey a message of peace and friendship to the countries in the region" (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/218615.html). A "message of peace of friendship"? This display of fire power in the Persian Gulf, oozing harmony and amity, is not likely to act as a salve for Saudi concerns involving Iran's irenic intentions.

For its part, the US has announced a $30 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, including 84 new F-15 fighters (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/iran-and-obama-administration.html), which according to Andrew Shapiro, US assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, is intended to "send a strong message to countries in the region that the United States is committed to stability in the Gulf and broader Middle East," but "not solely directed toward Iran" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/checkpoint-washington/post/us-saudi-arabia-strike-30-billion-arms-deal/2011/12/29/gIQAjZmhOP_blog.html?hpid=z4). "Not solely directed toward Iran"? Yeah, right.

The US arms deal with the Saudis has now been supplemented by the announcement of a $3.48 billion deal with the United Arab Emirates, also concerned by Iranian nuclear ambitions, and will include a Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ("THAAD") weapon system (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-seals-deal-on-348-billion-sale-of-missiles-technology-to-uae-a-close-ally-in-mideast/2011/12/30/gIQAukcYRP_story.html).

Meanwhile, in yet another bid to buy time for the game-changing development of its nuclear arsenal, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhai Jun in Tehran on Thursday that Iran is ready to resume negotiations concerning its nuclear program with the 5+1 group (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) (see: http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/94057-iran-ready-to-resume-g51-talks-salehi-).

In addition, Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Saturday that Jalili will soon write to the EU's neophyte foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, "to express Tehran's readiness for fresh nuclear talks with major powers" (see: http://ph.news.yahoo.com/iran-send-letter-eus-ashton-over-resumption-nuclear-064018416.html). Let's see if the the Hideous Baroness of Upholland (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2009/12/catherine-ashton-hideous-baroness-of.html) is once more willing to bite at the bait.

Indeed, Iran is very close to assembling its first atomic weapon, which is the reason for its desire to engage in maundering negotiations predestined to fail. As observed by Yossi Melman, the intelligence and military affairs correspondent for Haaretz, in a blog entry entitled "2012: The year that could bring a U.S. strike of Iran" (http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-arms-race/2012-the-year-that-could-bring-a-u-s-strike-of-iran-1.404390):

"Iran is, in all honesty, fairly close to its own 'year of reckoning.' It has already passed the 'technological threshold.' It knows how to enrich uranium, and has carried out experiments where uranium was enriched to 90%, as well as experiments with explosives to generate chain explosions. It carried out computer simulations of nuclear explosions. There is a general consensus that by the year 2012, and 2013 at the latest, Iran will be able to put together a nuclear weapon."

Bottom line: Notwithstanding short-term satisfaction over their purchase of top-of-the-line F-15 fighters, the Saudis will ultimately again insist that the US destroy Iran's nuclear development facilities. My understanding, however, is that President Obama, America's Procrastinator-in-Chief, is weighing whether such a strike undertaken prior to November 2012 best serves his chances of re-election.

Yes, 2012 stands to be interesting.

Iran: Let's Hope Obama Is Not Deluding Himself

As Iran continues to pursue its nuclear armaments development program, the Obama administration is trumpeting to the world a purportedly tough new set of sanctions aimed at Tehran. David Cohen, the U.S. Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will travel next week to the United Arab Emirates and Israel to discuss the Obama administration's decision to declare Iran a jurisdiction of "primary money laundering concern." According to Cohen (see: http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=247006):

"Our action, along with those taken by the UK and Canada, should have a chilling effect on the willingness of foreign financial institutions to do business with Iranian banking institutions. Foreign banks in jurisdictions where there may not be comprehensive sanctions on Iran are now much more likely to make the judgment that Iran is an increasingly risky place to do business."

As someone who has worked with financial institutions in the field of money laundering prevention, this flaccid move by the Obama administration will have no effect whatsoever on the willingness of banks to maintain their relationships with Tehran. Notwithstanding Cohen's impassioned declaration, this action is being interpreted by Iran as another sign of American impotence.

On the other hand, there is rampant paranoia in Iran following the explosion at a base outside of Tehran, where an intercontinental ballistic missile was being developed. The explosion killed 21 people, including General Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam, who was responsible for Iran's missile program (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/report-iran-revolutionary-guard-commander-killed-in-explosion-was-testing-missile/2011/11/19/gIQATpznaN_story.html). As reported by Thomas Erdbrink in a Washington Post article entitled "Mysterious explosions pose dilemma for Iranian leaders" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/mysterious-explosions-pose-dilemma-for-iranian-leaders/2011/11/23/gIQA8IsSvN_story.html),

"Iranian officials said the Nov. 12 blast at the missile base was an 'accident,' and they ruled out any sabotage organized by the United States and its regional allies. The explosion on the Shahid Modarres base near the city of Malard was so powerful that it shook the capital, Tehran, about 30 miles to the east.

Despite the official denial of foreign involvement in the latest blast, suspicions have been raised in Iran by what industry experts say is a fivefold increase in explosions at refineries and gas pipelines since 2010."

Now of course I could be wrong, but my guess is that we will be witnessing more such accidents in Iran in the months to come.

Obama: Out of Control in the Middle East

I care little for truisms and refuse to live my life according to adages; however, there is indeed one which has set me to thinking of late:

"You are either in control, or out of control."

Make no mistake about it, in the Middle East Obama is "out of control".

After Obama refused to back, even vocally, the dissidents in Iran in 2009, their street rebellion was destined to failure.

More recently, Obama called for, and received, the head of Mubarak, a long-time U.S. ally.

Now, after Obama claimed that the United States is "slowly tightening the noose" on Qaddafi (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_on_re_us/us_obama) and Hillary declared that "nothing is off the table" regarding a possible U.S. response to the Libyan crisis (http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/02/28/clinton-no-option-off-table-in-libya-crisis-2/), we now know that the U.S. is refusing to back the no-fly zone sponsored by France and the U.K. (see: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/14/un.libya.no.fly.talks/index.html?hpt=T2). We also know that on Monday Qaddafi's forces had retaken the town of Zuwara from the rebels (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/15/libya.civil.war/index.html?hpt=T2). Apparently that noose around Qaddafi's neck is tightening very, very, very slowly.

Saudi Arabia is furious with Obama, and without consulting the U.S., which has shown itself to be impotent in Saudi eyes, it has sent, together with the United Arab Emirates, 2,000 troops to Bahrain in support of its Sunni leadership. Bahrain's king, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, is facing opposition from the island's majority Shiite population, and the entry of Saudi and UAE soldiers has in turn raised the wrath of Iran, which is labeling the troop movement an "invasion" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/middleeast/16bahrain.html?hp).

Meanwhile, the Obama administration is reeling from the recent refusal of Saudi Arabia to play host to Secretary of Defense Gates and Secretary of State Clinton, who were both forced to cancel their visits to the desert kingdom. According to The New York Times, "American officials were left wondering whether the cause was King Abdullah’s frail health — or his pique at the United States" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15saudi.html?hp).

I cannot believe how daft and obtuse the Obama administration can be, but in any event, so as to leave no stone unturned, I picked up the phone earlier today to King Abdullah, and he is indeed livid with Obama. I don't think I've ever heard this 87-year-old monarch so angry.

As I stated at the outset, "You are either in control or out of control." In the Middle East, as elsewhere, Obama is out of control.