Thursday, March 21, 2013

David Brooks, "Forecasting Fox": Sorry, But I'll Stick With Benjamin Franklin

Several years ago I was asked to opine upon a novel "butterfly option" designed by a professional investor. My conclusion: Perhaps the method could be used to make limited sums of money during nine out of ten years, but if the unexpected were to happen - and it always does - you would lose everything that you earned in prior years. In short, I prefer my own insights based upon intimate study of any situation.

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Forecasting Fox" (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/opinion/brooks-forecasting-fox.html?_r=0), David Brooks describes an international affairs forecasting tournament held by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency in order to determine if better predictions were attainable. As observed by Brooks, the tournament's results after two years of competition demonstrate that "forecasting skill cannot only be taught, it can be replicated." Brooks concludes:

"If I were President Obama or John Kerry, I’d want the Penn/Berkeley predictions on my desk. The intelligence communities may hate it. High-status old vets have nothing to gain and much to lose by having their analysis measured against a bunch of outsiders. But this sort of work could probably help policy makers better anticipate what’s around the corner. It might induce them to think more probabilistically. It might make them better foxes."

Query: Could the so-called "Arab spring," today more akin to an Arctic winter, and its unsavory consequences, e.g., the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and 70,000 dead civilians in Syria, have been predicted? Yes and no. Poverty, illiteracy and high birth rates are combustible materials, particularly when carelessly mixed. On the other hand, it would have been hard to know in advance of the intentions of a vegetable seller in Tunisia to engage in an act of self-immolation, thus setting the entire Middle East on fire. Mubarak's demise? This also had much to do with the "lead from behind" foreign policy of a young American president being lead by the nose by a bevy of know-nothing itinerant journalists, basking in the bright sun of Tahrir Square.

As Benjamin Franklin wrote in 1789:

"In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes."

After 224 years, Franklin's words remain spot-on.





Wednesday, March 20, 2013

E.J. Dionne Jr., "Obama Hopes Israel Trip Amounts to a Fresh Start": Ignoring Women's Rights and Honor Killings in the Palestinian Authority

In a Washington Post opinion piece entitled "Obama hopes Israel trip amounts to a fresh start" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ej-dionne-obama-hopes-israel-trip-amounts-to-a-fresh-start/2013/03/20/327ca73e-918c-11e2-bdea-e32ad90da239_story.html?hpid=z3), E.J. Dionne Jr. writes:

"All of which brings us back to two states. The formula is tired, worn and frustrating. It is also inescapable. It’s the best solution for those who believe in a thriving, democratic Jewish state. It’s the best solution for those who believe in a thriving, democratic Palestinian state. And two thriving states offer the only long-term hope for peace."

Well, I believe in a two-state solution, but "a thriving, democratic Palestinian state" is not in the cards, owing to brutal discrimination against women throughout Gaza and the Palestinian Authority.

As reported by the Palestinian Ma'an News Agency in a December 2012 article entitled "Abbas aide: No plans to outlaw 'honor killing'" (http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=550792):

"President Mahmoud Abbas has no plans to amend laws that reduce sentences for suspects who claim an 'honor' defense for murdering women, his legal adviser says.

'Why change it? This would cause serious problems,' Hassan al-Ouri told Ma'an, adding that such a reform would 'not benefit women.'

In May 2011, the president pledged to amend the law to guarantee maximum penalties for 'honor killing' in response to protests over the killing of university student Aya Baradiya in Hebron.

The decision was announced in a phone call to a primetime show on state TV, drawing tears among crowds of mourners shown in a live link-up from the Ramallah studio to Baradiya’s hometown.

Abbas suspended Article 340, which offers a pardon for murder if the perpetrator committed the crime on finding his wife in bed with another man.

The reform was cosmetic: Article 340 had never been used in Palestinian courts since it was legislated in 1960.

'So why did we change the law? To garner public opinion,' al-Ouri said in an interview in the presidential compound in Ramallah.

'I, personally, was against the amendment because the crimes that happen in the street have no relevance to Article 340,' the legal adviser added.

Al-Ouri says the president will not change the go-to clauses for lawyers seeking leniency for clients who claim they committed murder to defend family 'honor.'

Articles 97 to 100 of the Jordanian Penal Code, in force in the West Bank, still offer reduced sentences for any act of battery or murder committed in a 'state of rage.'"

There can be no prosperity in Palestine so long as women continue to be oppressed by both Fatah and Hamas, and Dionne is blithely ignorant of the ugly realities in this corner of the world.

Do you think Obama will broach the issue of women's rights with Palestinian Authority President Abbas when they meet this week? Not a chance.

The welcome Obama should expect in the Palestinian Authority? As reported by The Jerusalem Post (http://www.jpost.com/International/Hundreds-in-Ramallah-protest-Obamas-planned-visit-307134):

"Hundreds of Palestinians gathered in the center of Ramallah on Wednesday to protest against US President Barack Obama’s planned visit to the city.

Palestinian activists vowed to step up their protests against Obama on Thursday and Friday.

The Palestinian Authority security forces plan to impose a curfew on large parts of Ramallah during Obama’s visit to the city. On the instruction of the PA leadership, schools will be closed in the city on Thursday and many streets blocked.

The protest was organized by the radical Islamist group Hizb ut Tahrir, which seeks the establishment of an Islamic caliphate.

. . . .

Declaring Obama persona non grata, the demonstrators in Ramallah chanted: 'O malicious Obama, defender of the state of the Jews,' 'We hereby declare, America is the mother of terror,' 'This nation shall not be humiliated or succumb to the Americans' and 'O Obama go back, Palestine is not for sale.'"

I fear for Obama's safety in both the Palestinian Authority and Jordan and pray that adequate precautions are being taken to protect the president.

Meanwhile, in a less than subtle message to Obama on the second day of his visit to Israel, four rockets were fired this morning at southern Israel from Gaza.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Thomas Friedman, "Democrats, Dragons or Drones?": Poison Gas, Natural Gas and Farting

Want to earn a degree at home in Middle Eastern studies after seven minutes of course work? Sorry, I'm not in that business and can't help you. However, if you read today's blog item - a bit longer than usual - I promise that you will know more about the Middle East than President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman rolled into one.

Yes, I know that's not setting the bar very high.

The Middle East today? If you take anything at all away from this blog entry, remember: The Middle East is all about poison gas, natural gas and farting.

Poison gas? Chemical weapons were indeed used on Tuesday against civilians near the northern Syrian city of Aleppo by either the rebels or forces still loyal to Syrian mass murderer Bashar al-Assad. You remember Bashar al-Assad? He's the guy who was visited by Kerry almost a half dozen times at the behest of Obama, and who, after dinner with their wives and an intimate motorcycle ride through the streets of Damascus, was labeled "my dear friend" by Kerry.

Kerry, you will recall, not long ago told us that "Americans have the right to be stupid." Well, Kerry continues to exercise that right. Following the deaths of more than 70,000 innocent persons over the past three years in Syria, Kerry declared on Monday that the United States does not oppose arms shipments to the rebels from . . . the UK and France. As reported by the VOA (http://www.voanews.com/content/syrian-opposition-meets-to-pick-prime-minister/1623489.html):

"'President Obama has made it clear that the United States does not stand in the way of other countries that made a decision to provide arms, whether it is France or Britain or others,' said Kerry.

Kerry said there is a military imbalance in Syria, with President Bashar al-Assad receiving help from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. That imbalance is creating what he called a 'global catastrophe' of Syrian refugees fleeing to Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey."

Yup, a "global catastrophe," so let the English and the French deal with it. You know, more of the Obama doctrine of leading from behind. But wait, out of the mouth of babes . . . . Wasn't it indeed the UK and France that created the artificial borders of the modern Middle East pursuant to the 1916 Sykes-Picot Treaty, when the two allies were busying fighting the Ottoman Empire?



As the old saying tells us, "You break it, you buy it," even if it happened almost a century ago.

Natural gas? As observed by David Brooks, in a recent New York Times op-ed entitled "The Axis of Ennui" (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/12/opinion/brooks-the-axis-of-ennui.html):

"Daniel Yergin, an energy guru, noted in Congressional testimony last month that the revolution in oil and gas extraction has led to 1.7 million new jobs in the United States alone, a number that could rise to three million by 2020. The shale revolution added $62 billion to federal revenues in 2012. At the same time, carbon-dioxide emissions are down 13 percent since 2007, as gas is used instead of coal to generate electricity.

Most of us have grown up in a world in which we assumed that energy was scarce, or even running out. We could now be entering a world of relatively cheap energy abundance.

Most of us have grown up in a world in which oil states in the Middle East could throw their weight around because of their grip on the economy’s life source. But the power of petro-states is on the wane."

Moreover, Brooks failed to mention that Israel also has huge deposits of oil shale. As reported by Amiram Barkat for Globes (http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000686073&fid=1724):

"'Within a few years, Israel will become one the largest producers of oil and gas in the world.' That is the belief of Dr. Harold Vinegar, who until three years ago was Chief Scientist, Physics, of energy giant Royal Dutch Shell. Talking to 'Globes', Vinegar says that he estimates that exploration for gas will yield impressive results, but that Israel's true future lies in oil. He believes that the chances of finding regular oil are not high, but that huge quantities of oil shale will make it possible to produce oil in quantities approaching the production of Saudi Arabia"

Can you imagine tiny Israel rivaling Saudi Arabia as one of the world's energy giants? Yes, there is still a glimmer of hope for this world.

In a nutshell, the Muslim Middle East will soon no longer be able to hold the United States over an oil barrel.

And now we come to the matter of human flatulence.

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Democrats, Dragons or Drones?" (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/20/opinion/friedman-democrats-dragons-or-drones.html?_r=0), would-be Middle East expert Thomas Friedman writes:

"Given its history of brutal dictatorship, Iraq might seem to be the last place in the Middle East we should have tried to help give birth to a self-governing democracy. In fact, it was the most important. Just look at Syria and you’ll understand why. Iraq was made up of all the sects that populate the different Arab countries and have been held together over the last 50 years by iron-fisted dictators. If Iraqis could demonstrate that, once their dictator was removed, the constituent communities of Iraq (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmen, Christians) could forge their own social contract for living together peacefully — rather than being ruled brutally from the top down — then some kind of democratic future was possible throughout the Arab world.

That possibility is yet to be fulfilled."

Oh really? Still no "self-governing democracy" in Iraq? Who would have ever imagined that Iraq's Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds wouldn't be able to let bygones be bygones? Not Thomas Friedman. A decade ago, Friedman wrote (http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/22/opinion/thinking-about-iraq-i.html?ref=thomaslfriedman):

"It is not unreasonable to believe that if the U.S. removed Saddam and helped Iraqis build not an overnight democracy but a more accountable, progressive and democratizing regime, it would have a positive, transforming effect on the entire Arab world -- a region desperately in need of a progressive model that works."

Sorry, Tom, but it was unreasonable.

And if cheerleading the Second Gulf War was not sufficiently inane, Friedman more recently was to be found in Cairo's Tahrir Square, ballyhooing the Arab Spring, which brought us the Muslim Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi.

Now I know that this blog item is inordinately long and you are growing tired, but before saying goodbye, please note, kind reader, that the US is still providing Egypt with $1.5 billion in aid each year. What is this aid buying America? See what the Muslim Brotherhood has to say in its own words in its official English website (http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=30731):

"The 57th session of the UN Commission on the Status of Women (CSW), taking place from March 4 to 15 at UN headquarters, seeks to ratify a declaration euphemistically entitled ‘End Violence against Women’.

That title, however, is misleading and deceptive. The document includes articles that contradict established principles of Islam, undermine Islamic ethics and destroy the family, the basic building block of society, according to the Egyptian Constitution.

This declaration, if ratified, would lead to complete disintegration of society, and would certainly be the final step in the intellectual and cultural invasion of Muslim countries, eliminating the moral specificity that helps preserve cohesion of Islamic societies.

A closer look at these articles reveals what decadence awaits our world, if we sign this document:

1. Granting girls full sexual freedom, as well as the freedom to decide their own gender and the gender of their partners (ie, choose to have normal or homo-sexual relationships), while raising the age of marriage.

2. Providing contraceptives for adolescent girls and training them to use those, while legalizing abortion to get rid of unwanted pregnancies, in the name of sexual and reproductive rights.

3. Granting equal rights to adulterous wives and illegitimate sons resulting from adulterous relationships.

4. Granting equal rights to homosexuals, and providing protection and respect for prostitutes.

5. Giving wives full rights to file legal complaints against husbands accusing them of rape or sexual harassment, obliging competent authorities to deal husbands punishments similar to those prescribed for raping or sexually harassing a stranger.

6. Equal inheritance (between men and women).

7. Replacing guardianship with partnership, and full sharing of roles within the family between men and women such as: spending, child care and home chores.

8. Full equality in marriage legislation such as: allowing Muslim women to marry non-Muslim men, and abolition of polygamy, dowry, men taking charge of family spending, etc.

9. Removing the authority of divorce from husbands and placing it in the hands of judges, and sharing all property after divorce.

10. Cancelling the need for a husband’s consent in matters like: travel, work, or use of contraception.

These are destructive tools meant to undermine the family as an important institution; they would subvert the entire society, and drag it to pre-Islamic ignorance.

The Muslim Brotherhood urges the leaders of Muslim countries and their UN representatives to reject and condemn this document, and to call upon this organization to rise to the high morals and principles of family relations prescribed by Islam.

The Muslim Brotherhood also calls on Al-Azhar (the highest seat of learning for Muslims) to take the lead, condemn this declaration, and state clearly the Islamic viewpoint with regard to all details of this document.

Further, we urge all Islamic groups and associations to take a decisive stand on this document and similar declarations.

In conclusion, we call on women's organizations to commit to their religion and morals of their communities and the foundations of good social life and not be deceived with misleading calls to decadent modernization and paths of subversive immorality.

God Almighty says: "God wants to forgive you, but those who follow whims and desires want you to deviate far away from the Path). {Quran 4 : 27}

The Muslim Brotherhood

Cairo: March 13, 2013"

Enough said. As promised at the onset, if you have read this blog entry from beginning to end, you now know more about the Middle East than President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman rolled into one. Yes, I know that's not much of anything, but it's a start.


Washington Post Editorial, "President Obama’s To-Do List for His Mideast Trip": The Wrong Symbolic Gestures

The Washington Post, in an editorial entitled "President Obama’s to-do list for his Mideast trip" (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obamas-to-do-list-for-his-middle-east-trip/2013/03/18/87cd61d0-8ff0-11e2-bdea-e32ad90da239_story.html?hpid=z3), notes that "Mr. Obama’s visit beginning Wednesday is primarily aimed at allowing him to build bridges both to Israelis and to Mr. Netanyahu," and as such, the president plans various symbolic gestures:

"The president’s schedule is loaded with symbolic affirmations of his commitment to Israel’s security, such as a U.S.-funded Iron Dome anti-missile battery that will await him at the airport, and with correctives to mistakes Mr. Obama made in his first term. In his 2009 Cairo speech, the president inadvertently implied that Israel’s existence was justified by the Holocaust; on this visit he will visit an exhibition of the Dead Sea Scrolls as a way of affirming the historical Jewish claim to the land."

Note, however, that Obama will not speak before Israel's parliament or visit the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem so as to avoid offending Israel's Muslim neighbors.

Sorry, but visiting an exhibition of the Essenes' Dead Sea Scrolls is not what it will take to improve the popularity of Obama among the 68 percent of Israelis who have an unfavorable view of him.

David Brooks, "The Progressive Shift": The Department of Labor Commissions a New $300 Million Statue

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "The Progressive Shift" (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/19/opinion/brooks-the-progressive-shift.html?_r=0), David Brooks begins by referring to the bronze statue of a broad-shouldered young man seeking to control a powerful stallion, which is situated outside the Department of Labor in Washington. Brooks explains:

"This used to be a metaphor for liberalism. The horse was capitalism. The man was government, which was needed sometimes to restrain capitalism’s excesses.

Today, liberalism seems to have changed. Today, many progressives seem to believe that government is the horse, the source of growth, job creation and prosperity. Capitalism is just a feeding trough that government can use to fuel its expansion.

For an example of this new worldview, look at the budget produced by the Congressional Progressive Caucus last week. These Democrats try to boost economic growth with a gigantic $2.1 trillion increase in government spending — including a $450 billion public works initiative, a similar-size infrastructure program and $179 billion so states, too, can hire more government workers."

Brooks proceeds to question the wisdom of raising taxes on the rich, which will not prevent US debt from doubling over the next 30 years, and concludes:

"The progressive budget in the House seems to have been written by people hermetically sealed in the house of government. They work in government. They represent public-sector workers. They seem to have had little contact with private-sector job creators and no idea about what factors might play in their thinking. It’s a reminder that while Republicans may embarrass on a daily basis, many progressives have lost touch with what actually produces growth and prosperity."

Well, I would begin by noting that I disagree with Brooks's contention that "the economy is finally beginning to take off." Ask anyone over 50 years of age and unemployed whether she or he senses a sea change. As I have explained many times in this blog, the elimination of the Uptick Rule in 2007 has crippled US economic growth in the private sector and is allowing parasitic hedge funds to feed off naive investors (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2013/02/paul-krugman-rubio-and-zombies.html) . Unemployment in the private sector can only drop marginally.

The expanding public sector? Working 9-to-5, punctuated by coffee breaks and interrupted by lengthy vacations, does not bring innovation and productivity. The US is following Europe into the abyss.

I would only add that Brooks apparently is unaware of the Obama administration's plans to tear down the statue outside the Department of Labor in Washington. Instead, notwithstanding the sequester, a new $300 million statue has been commissioned, which will depict a blind man with a cane attempting to lead a sway-backed donkey pulling in the opposite direction.

C'est tout.

Monday, March 18, 2013

You Just Won't Believe What Obama Is Subsidizing in Egypt

I hope you didn't eat your breakfast yet.

The US currently provides Egypt, which is now controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, with $1.5 billion in aid each year. What is this aid supporting? See what the Muslim Brotherhood says in its own words in its official English website (http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=30731):

"The 57th session of the UN Commission on the Status of Women (CSW), taking place from March 4 to 15 at UN headquarters, seeks to ratify a declaration euphemistically entitled ‘End Violence against Women’.

That title, however, is misleading and deceptive. The document includes articles that contradict established principles of Islam, undermine Islamic ethics and destroy the family, the basic building block of society, according to the Egyptian Constitution.

This declaration, if ratified, would lead to complete disintegration of society, and would certainly be the final step in the intellectual and cultural invasion of Muslim countries, eliminating the moral specificity that helps preserve cohesion of Islamic societies.

A closer look at these articles reveals what decadence awaits our world, if we sign this document:

1. Granting girls full sexual freedom, as well as the freedom to decide their own gender and the gender of their partners (ie, choose to have normal or homo-sexual relationships), while raising the age of marriage.

2. Providing contraceptives for adolescent girls and training them to use those, while legalizing abortion to get rid of unwanted pregnancies, in the name of sexual and reproductive rights.

3. Granting equal rights to adulterous wives and illegitimate sons resulting from adulterous relationships.

4. Granting equal rights to homosexuals, and providing protection and respect for prostitutes.

5. Giving wives full rights to file legal complaints against husbands accusing them of rape or sexual harassment, obliging competent authorities to deal husbands punishments similar to those prescribed for raping or sexually harassing a stranger.

6. Equal inheritance (between men and women).

7. Replacing guardianship with partnership, and full sharing of roles within the family between men and women such as: spending, child care and home chores.

8. Full equality in marriage legislation such as: allowing Muslim women to marry non-Muslim men, and abolition of polygamy, dowry, men taking charge of family spending, etc.

9. Removing the authority of divorce from husbands and placing it in the hands of judges, and sharing all property after divorce.

10. Cancelling the need for a husband’s consent in matters like: travel, work, or use of contraception.

These are destructive tools meant to undermine the family as an important institution; they would subvert the entire society, and drag it to pre-Islamic ignorance.

The Muslim Brotherhood urges the leaders of Muslim countries and their UN representatives to reject and condemn this document, and to call upon this organization to rise to the high morals and principles of family relations prescribed by Islam.

The Muslim Brotherhood also calls on Al-Azhar (the highest seat of learning for Muslims) to take the lead, condemn this declaration, and state clearly the Islamic viewpoint with regard to all details of this document.

Further, we urge all Islamic groups and associations to take a decisive stand on this document and similar declarations.

In conclusion, we call on women's organizations to commit to their religion and morals of their communities and the foundations of good social life and not be deceived with misleading calls to decadent modernization and paths of subversive immorality.

God Almighty says: "God wants to forgive you, but those who follow whims and desires want you to deviate far away from the Path). {Quran 4 : 27}

The Muslim Brotherhood

Cairo: March 13, 2013"

This is one of those rare instances where words escape me.

Jodi Rudoren, "New Apartments Will Complicate Jerusalem Issue": The "Experts" Tell Us . . .

In case you missed it, New York Times reporter Jodi Rudoren wrote two days ago in an article entitled "New Apartments Will Complicate Jerusalem Issue" (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/17/world/middleeast/in-jerusalem-jewish-apartments-in-arab-neighborhoods-complicate-issue.html?hp&pagewanted=all&_r=0):

"While most experts on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have long imagined Jerusalem as ultimately being divided, with Jewish neighborhoods remaining part of Israel and Arab ones joining Palestine, these new buildings make such a plan more complicated if not impossible — which may be exactly the point."

"Experts"? Please name them.

But more to the point, what would be so terrible if Jerusalem were to be divided, and Jews were to continue to live in the eastern part of Jerusalem, controlled by the Palestinian Authority? Must Palestine be Judenfrei?

If there is ever going to be peace between Jews and Palestinians, they are going to have to learn to live together.

And yet we constantly hear the insipid reprise that Israel is "apartheid."

By the way, this is the same Jodi Rudoren who was responsible for the canard, repeated by Thomas Friedman (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2012/12/second-open-letter-to-margaret-sullivan.html), that Israel's E1 construction, would divide the West Bank in two (see also: http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=10&x_journo=603).