Will Israel Attack Iran's Nuclear Weapons Development Facilities? Obama Is Leaving Israel No Choice

This week's "negotiations" in Moscow between the P5+1 and Iran over Iran's nuclear development program ended with little media coverage and for good reason: Absolutely no progress was made. Aware that Obama is not seeking a confrontation prior to the US presidential election in November, Iran refused to make any concessions. And rather than acknowledge unmitigated, humiliating failure, the P5+1, led by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the EU, Catherine Ashton [see picture of the Hideous Baroness of Upholland (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2009/12/catherine-ashton-hideous-baroness-of.html) above], agreed to further "expert" discussions (as opposed to the "nincompoop" discussions held by the bovine Ashton with the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili), which will be held in Istanbul in early July and permit Iran to continue stalling.

Remember how Obama warned Iran in March that "as president of the United States, I don't bluff" (see: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/)? Well, Iran has just called Obama's bluff, and the American president has folded.

So what is to be expected of Israel? Israeli foreign policy has long been guided by the principle that if someone says they are going to exterminate you, believe them. Iran has repeatedly indicated that it intends to annihilate Israel, leaving Israel with no choice other than to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities, apparently on its own.

Israel may not act immediately. Oil prices yesterday fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since October, and this will further disrupt Iran's economy. Moreover, Netanyahu cannot act without first demonstrating good faith by allowing the farcical P5+1 negotiations to reach an ultimate stalemate.

In addition, Israel is not anxious to weaken the resolve of opponents of the Assad regime in Syria by initiating what might expand into a regional conflagration also involving Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. But once again, Israel is being left with no choice.

Should we be surprised by Obama's silence? No, given that re-election is the highest item on his current agenda. Then, too, as Obama observed in an interview with New York Times columnist David Brooks in 2007 (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9502E1DC153EF935A15757C0A9619C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all):

"I think Iran is like North Korea. They see nuclear arms in defensive terms, as a way to prevent regime change."

Or in other words, Obama doesn't really have a problem with Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Going ahead, this isn't going to be pretty.