After Syria, Lebanon Is Next: Are You Smarter Than the CIA?

Are you in the market for a Middle East weathervane? You need go no further than Walid Jumblatt, longstanding leader of Lebanon's Druze minority, who, in a country where many politicians are ultimately assassinated, has managed to keep his wits - and his other body parts - about him. Walid has always known which way the wind is blowing, and he is currently advising Syria's Druze and Alawite minorities to join the revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jul-21/181419-jumblatt-urges-syrian-druze-alawites-to-join-revolt.ashx#axzz21FfwRggY).

You will recall that one month ago, I observed that US intelligence, which claimed that the Assad regime is not apt to lose power any time in the foreseeable future (http://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-syrian-army-stable-despite-defections-213931967.html), was mistaken (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/syria-us-intelligence-mistaken.html).

Well, with the fighting now spreading to Damascus and Aleppo, and with the rebels receiving increasing support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, the fall of the Assad regime is being likened by Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to a "controlled demolition" (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/world/middleeast/us-to-focus-on-forcibly-toppling-syrian-government.html?_r=2). Mr. Tabler is further quoted in that same article as saying, "But like any controlled demolition, anything can go wrong."

Anything can go wrong? True, but sometimes things can also "go right."

First, let me place the conflagration in Syria in better perspective: The revolt in Syria against Bashar al-Assad has now become part of the larger battle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran for hegemony over the Muslim Middle East. Until now, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been waging a proxy war in Yemen. Observe also the attempt by Iran on the life of the Saudi ambassador to the US less than a year ago. Saudi Arabia is now pleased to return the favor by helping bring down Assad, who is a key ally of Iran and also a conduit of Iranian aid to Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon.

In case you didn't know, Hezbollah is already showing signs of strain in Lebanon. In addition to being a perpetrator of terror, as evidenced by its most recent attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, Hezbollah is also a social services agency, looking after the well-being of Lebanon's Shiite community, which forms its political base. With Iran being squeezed - albeit ineffectively - by sanctions, funding of Hezbollah by Iran is down by more than 40% (see: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/12/16/Iran-cuts-Hezbollah-funds-Israel-says/UPI-18921292513073/), and pressure is also being placed on the Lebanese banks which have served as conduits for funding of this terror organization.

When Assad falls, and the movement of arms and funds from Iran becomes more difficult, Hezbollah will be in serious trouble.

Yes, there is a reason that Walid Jumblatt is now sounding off against Bashar al-Assad. Incidentally (some blood-red color commentary), Walid's father, Kamal, was assassinated in 1977 pursuant to orders given by Rifaat al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's uncle. What goes around, ultimately comes around.

When Bashar al-Assad falls, as he ultimately must, look for "change" in Lebanon as well. Lebanon's Sunnis are already beginning to challenge Hezbollah (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Jul-19/181142-syria-uprising-puts-hezbollah-on-defensive.ashx#axzz21PTNGRPm), which will not be able to order Lebanon around without Big Brother Bashar to protect them.

The show has just begun. And those of you who have read this item from beginning to end are now officially smarter than the CIA. Your security analyst certificates are already in the mail . . . not.

Also, a hearty shout-out to my friends in Jeddah (جدّة)!