Robert Reich: Unemployment Figures to Determine Obama's Fate

Robert Reich, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, former Secretary of Labor in the Clinton administration, and one of the ten most effective cabinet secretaries of the last century according to Time Magazine, says that the US presidential election will be determined by the unemployment situation after Labor Day. In a July 6 HuffPost blog item entitled "The Jobs Doldrums and Obama's Future" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-jobs-doldrums-and-oba_b_1654082.html), Reich writes:

"In Ohio yesterday, Obama reiterated that he had inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression. That's true. But the excuse is wearing thin. It's his economy now, and most voters don't care what he inherited.

. . . .

Yet he has to show he understands the depth and breadth of this crisis, and is prepared to do large and bold things to turn the economy around in his second term if and when he does have the votes in Congress. So far, his proposals are policy miniatures relative to the size of the problem.

But the real political test comes after Labor Day. Before Labor Day, Americans aren't really focused on the upcoming election. After Labor Day, they focus like a laser. If the economy is moving in the right direction then -- if unemployment is dropping and jobs are increasing -- Obama has a good chance of being reelected. If the present doldrums continue -- or worse -- he won't be."

Obama now owns the economy? "Policy miniatures relative to the size of the problem"? I agree, but I don't see any "bold" proposals on the horizon.

However, there is an alternative scenario in which the election is not decided by the state of the economy.

Tensions continue to mount in the Persian Gulf as Iran threatens to sink US aircraft carriers, block the Strait of Hormuz, and destroy 35 neighboring US military bases. The US has responded to Tehran's saber rattling by quietly bolstering the level of its forces in the region (see: http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=276589).

Note also that a major US-Israeli anti-missile exercise, Austere Challenge 12, is scheduled for the fall (see: http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=275764).

My belief remains that Obama's handling of this crisis with Iran, when it comes to a head in the coming months, could well tip the results in November one way or another.