Thomas Friedman, "Syria Is Iraq": More Twaddle From a Would-Be Middle East Expert

When will Tom Friedman stop making a fool of himself?

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Syria Is Iraq" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/opinion/friedman-syria-is-iraq.html), Friedman concludes:

"It would be wonderful to see the tyrannical Assad-Russia-Iran-Hezbollah axis replaced by a democratizing Syria, not a chaotic Syria.

But color me dubious. The 20 percent of Syrians who are pro-Assad Alawites or Christians will be terrified of the new Sunni Muslim majority, with its Muslim Brotherhood component, and this Sunni Muslim majority has suffered such brutality from this regime that reconciliation will be difficult, especially with each passing day of bloodshed. Without an external midwife or a Syrian Mandela, the fires of conflict could burn for a long time. I hope I am surprised."

Well, Friedman is correct: democracy is not on its way to Syria. The Muslim Brotherhood, which will wrest the reins of power from the Assad Regime, is not devoted to democracy. Rather, as its name suggests, it policies are dictated by radical Islam.

However, Syria is not Iraq. Assad and his fellow Alawites, considered heretics by most Sunnis and many Shia, comprise some 12% of Syria's population. By contrast, Sunnis constitute some 35% of Iraq's population, and given that some 20% of Iraq's population consists of Kurds, it was far easier for Saddam Hussein, a Sunni, to play divide and conquer.

If Syria's Sunnis, comprising some 74% of the population, persist in their determination to die in order to rid themselves of Assad - and there is no reason to believe that this will change - Assad's days are numbered.

Friedman contends that "the fires of conflict could burn for a long time." No way.

Assad has gone underground and has desperately threatened to unleash his massive stockpiles of chemical weapons upon "foreign enemies."

Russia, however, has warned Assad not to use these chemical weapons (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/International/2012/Jul-24/181816-russia-urges-syria-to-refrain-from-using-chemical-weapons.ashx#axzz21iDa0a3M), and is now withholding arms shipments to Syria (see: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-not-deliver-fighter-jets-syria-ria-120423448.html).

In short, the demise of the Assad regime is not going to be a "linear" protracted affair, but rather sudden and sooner than Tom believes.

Are you listening, McLean?