Turkey and Israel: A Sea Change in Relations

After years of deteriorating relations between Jerusalem and Ankara since the AKP came to power in Turkey, there suddenly appears to be a sea change, owing to the current tempest in Syria. With thousands of Syrian civilians fleeing to the Turkish border, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is no longer cooing over his fraternal relationship with Syria's Assad. Quite the contrary: Two weeks ago, Erdogan labeled the conduct of Syria's army "barbaric" (see: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=224433&R=R3), and when Assad called Erdogan to congratulate him on the AKP's June national election victory, Assad received a tongue-lashing (see: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=225002&R=R1).

How has the turmoil in Syria impacted upon Turkey's relationship with Israel? First, the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara, which had been expected to carry hundreds of protesters, suddenly abandoned the upcoming Gaza flotilla without good reason. Turkey is even acknowledging that the flotilla is unnecessary and could prove counterproductive:

"Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, the Turkish secretary-general of the Organization of the Islamic Conference was quoted in the Turkish media on Tuesday saying that 'a return of last year’s events may lead to problems that will be impossible to solve. There is no need for that.'

He said humanitarian aid was continuing to be brought in the Gaza Strip over land."

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=227274

More recently, it was reported that Turkey conveyed an Israeli warning to Assad not to initiate hostilities in order to halt the ongoing insurrection. As reported by The Jerusalem Post (http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=227058):

"Israel sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad in recent days, warning him that if he started a war with the Jewish state in order to divert attention from domestic problems, Israel will target him personally, Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Tuesday.

According to the report, the personal warning was sent through Turkey following intelligence reports of unusual Syrian troop movements, including the moving of long-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel."

Never a dull moment in the Middle East.

Turkey's IHH Pulls Out of Gaza Flotilla

IHH, a Turkish organization linked to al-Qaeda (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2010/06/gaza-flotilla-little-picture-big.html), has pulled out of the Gaza flotilla planned for later this month. According to IHH, their ship, the Mavi Marmara, which participated in the prior flotilla, did not get the necessary approval from Turkish port authorities to depart. Yeah, right.

Make no mistake about it: IHH receives marching orders from Turkey's ruling, Islamic, AKP Party, and the IHH cancellation follows Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's "suggestion" to IHH that they reconsider their participation in the flotilla (see: http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/turkey-foreign-minister-urges-organizers-to-reconsider-gaza-flotilla-1.366327).

The chaos and rioting in Syria, which have brought thousands of Syrian refugees to the Turkish border, have sparked tension between Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and his heretofore "dear friend" Assad. Erdogan is now accusing Assad of "barbarism" (see: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=224433&R=R3).

It could prove extremely embarrassing for Erdogan if IHH were to sail to Gaza, given the emerging humanitarian crisis on Turkey's border with Syria. It was already embarrassing enough that longevity, live births and literacy are higher in Gaza than in all of Turkey without even drawing comparisons with Turkey's disadvantaged Kurdish population.

Erdogan is carefully watching the response of Syria's oppressed Kurdish minority to the rioting. Erdogan is concerned that a Kurdish insurrection in Syria could spread to the significant Kurdish minority in Turkey, who were already outraged by the ban on their candidates' participation in national elections earlier this month (see: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/04/19/turkey-explosion-kurds.html). Erdogan does not need to be bothered by the distraction of another flotilla, given the real crisis on the Syrian border.

Also, the U.S. is now scrutinizing the conduct of Turkey, which did not provide NATO with assistance to contend with Libya's Qaddafi. Parallels will necessarily be drawn between the AKP's interaction with the IHH and the Pakistani government's "arrangements" with the Taliban and al-Qaeda (see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/7910687/Wikileaks-Pakistan-accused-of-helping-Taliban-in-Afghanistan-attacks.html). It would appear that both Pakistan and Turkey are adept at playing both sides of the fence.