Showing posts with label Dennis Ross. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dennis Ross. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Dennis Ross and David Petraeus, "How to put some teeth into the nuclear deal with Iran": How About Dentures?



In a Washington Post opinion piece entitled "How to put some teeth into the nuclear deal with Iran," Dennis Ross and David Petraeus explain why they remain undecided concerning approval  of Obama's nuclear deal with Iran. Ross and Petraeus conclude:

"Deterrence would be more effective — and full implementation of the agreement more likely — if the Iranians understand that there will be a price for every transgression, no matter how small, and that we will raise the cost to them of de-stabilizing behavior in the region. The president’s letter to [Congressman Jerrold] Nadler was useful but fell short of addressing our concerns. It is still possible for the administration to do so."

Threaten Iran with a price for every transgression, no matter how small? Heck, Iran has been callously violating the interim Joint Plan of Action, and now, suddenly, Obama is going to respond to minor breaches of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?

Get real, Dennis and David! I would be satisfied if the deal came with dentures.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

New York Times Editorial, "Ayatollah Khamenei’s Fateful Choice": Obama's Chickens Come Home to Roost



Do you remember how the White House and the State Department used to tell us regarding a nuclear arrangement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, "No deal is better than a bad deal" and "All options are on the table"? Well, we don't hear that anymore. Instead, in the face of Supreme Leader Khamenei's intransigence and given Obama's desperate need for a presidential legacy, the operative language guiding Wendy Sherman, a social worker turned nuclear negotiator who was responsible in large part for the disastrous nuclear arrangement with North Korea, has become, "Any deal is better than no deal, because, quite frankly, all options are off the table."

Well, given Obama's endless string of concessions at the P5+1 talks with Tehran in Geneva, optimism concerning the finalization of a deal with Iran around the June 30 deadline had been rampant. At least, until the Iranian parliament placed additional demands upon the country's negotiators to the accompaniment of cries of "Death to America" on Sunday, and until Khamenei also placed Iranian military sites off limits to inspections on Tuesday, i.e. you can conduct your searches where we are not developing an atomic bomb, but you can't look where we are undertaking such activity.

The New York Times, also known as the unofficial mouthpiece of the Obama administration, has reacted with alarm to Khamenei's latest set of demands. In an editorial entitled "Ayatollah Khamenei’s Fateful Choice," the Times declares:

"As the negotiations approach the deadline, some in the United States are also intensifying their criticism against the deal. One goal of the agreement is to ensure that the time it will take Iran to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb is increased from three months now to at least 12 months. Some critics argue the deal does not do that, in part because Iran will retain a small enrichment program and thousands of centrifuges, though many leading technical experts say it does."

Here, the Times is responding to Professor Alan J. Kuperman's guest op-ed entitled "The Iran Deal’s Fatal Flaw," which stated that the agreement being negotiated by Sherman and friends would only lengthen Iran's breakout time from "a little under two months" to three months. 

The Times editorial continues:

"Other critics accuse the Obama administration of dropping a demand that Iran disclose full details of its past efforts to pursue a nuclear weapon. But the April framework specifies that Iran address those concerns, and Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters on June 16 that Iran would have to answer outstanding questions about the weapons program before receiving significant sanctions relief under any deal.

Compromises are part of any negotiation. Any agreement can really be judged only when the text is signed and details are made public. The April framework accord was a solid basis on which to build a credible final deal. Ayatollah Khamenei must decide whether he and his government can live with the economic and political consequences if he sabotages this deal."

Apparently, the Times got wind of the fact that Obama's non-negotiable "demand that Iran disclose full details of its past efforts to pursue a nuclear weapon" has been dropped by Sherman in order to reach a compromise. More to the point, social worker Sherman is learning that the April framework accord was not a solid basis on which to build a credible final deal. Rather, it was an agreement to agree, which even Obama, who once studied contract law, can tell you is not binding.

And now, much to the chagrin of the West Wing, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has thrown a new monkey wrench into efforts to sign off on a deal with Iran. As stated by David Sanger in a New York Times article entitled "Ex-Advisers Warn Obama That Iran Nuclear Deal ‘May Fall Short’ of Standards," the June 24 "Public Statement on U.S. Policy Toward the Iran Nuclear Negotiations Endorsed by a Bipartisan Group of American Diplomats, Legislators, Policymakers, and Experts" calls into question the underlying substance of Obama's would-be agreement with the mullahs. Sanger writes:

"Five former members of President Obama’s inner circle of Iran advisers have written an open letter expressing concern that a pending accord to stem Iran’s nuclear program “may fall short of meeting the administration’s own standard of a ‘good’ agreement” and laying out a series of minimum requirements that Iran must agree to in coming days for them to support a final deal.

Several of the senior officials said the letter was prompted by concern that Mr. Obama’s negotiators were headed toward concessions that would weaken international inspection of Iran’s facilities, back away from forcing Tehran to reveal its suspected past work on weapons, and allow Iranian research and development that would put it on a course to resuming intensive production of nuclear fuel as soon as the accord expires.

The public nature of the announcement by some of Mr. Obama’s best-known former advisers, all of whom had central roles in the diplomatic, intelligence and military efforts to counter Iran’s program, adds to the challenge facing Secretary of State John Kerry as the negotiations head toward a deadline of next Tuesday."

Not a "good" agreement? In fact, that depends upon whether some narcissist's legacy is more important than a future nuclear holocaust, which could reach American shores, owing to a deal which also does not seek to prevent Iran from developing ICBMs.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

The Times of Israel, "Israel’s former US envoy: PM should cancel Congress speech": I Disagree

Former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren is a friend with whom I have served in the Israeli army and for whom I have the highest respect. As I write this blog entry, Mike's marvelous book, "Six Days of War," sits on a shelf opposite me. However, we disagree regarding the stance he has taken with respect to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech to Congress on March 3.

As reported by The Times of Israel in an article entitled "Israel’s former US envoy: PM should cancel Congress speech":

"Oren, who is running for Knesset on the Kulanu list led by popular former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, told Channel 2 Saturday that it was 'advisable to cancel the speech to Congress so as not to cause a rift with the American government. Much responsibility and reasoned political behavior are needed to guard interests in the White House."

Iran is an existential threat to Israel, as most recently evidenced by the presence of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Mohammad Ali-Allah Dadi on the Syrian border with Israel. One week ago, an Israeli army helicopter killed General Dadi together with six top Hezbollah commanders, while they were mapping out future missile strikes against Israel to be launched from the Syrian Golan Heights.

Meanwhile, Obama is willy-nilly determined to reach an agreement with Iran concerning its nuclear weapons development program. As was noted last January by Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes regarding a nuclear deal with Iran:

"This is probably the biggest thing President Obama will do in his second term on foreign policy. This is healthcare for us, just to put it in context."

However, as stated by former White House advisor Dennis Ross, Eric Edelman and Ray Takeyh in a Politico article entitled "Time to Take It to Iran":

"During the course of the nuclear negotiations over the past year, Iran has been the beneficiary of a generous catalogue of concessions from the West. The 5-plus-1 has conceded to Iranian enrichment, agreed that Tehran need not scale back the number of its centrifuges significantly or dismantle any facilities and could have an industrial-size program after passage of a period of time. The Iranians have, during the course of the ten years of negotiations, grown accustomed to having their interlocutors return to the table with concessions meant to meet their mandates while offering only limited compromises of their own.

. . . .

Hence it is time to acknowledge that we need a revamped coercive strategy, one that threatens what the Islamic Republic values the most—its influence in the Middle East and its standing at home. And the pattern of concessions at the negotiating table must stop if there is to be an acceptable agreement. Iranian officials must come to understand that there will be no further concessions to reach an accord and that time is running out for negotiations."

Mike Oren claims that Israel needs to guard its interests in the White House. My belief, however, is that Obama is obsessively determined to reach agreement with Iran no matter what the consequences for Israel, and that Israel can expect nothing but hostility from Obama during the next two years.

As such, Netanyahu has an obligation to present Congress with evidence of the full extent of the Iranian threat, including ongoing development of nuclear weapons at Iran's Parchin facility, to which Tehran is denying access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Dennis Ross, "What the President Has Done for Israel in the Security Area Is Without Precedent;" Israeli Jews Prefer Romney By 3:1

As reported by Haaretz (http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/dennis-ross-what-obama-has-done-for-israel-s-security-is-without-precedent.premium-1.472781):

"Former top White House and State Department official Dennis Ross has come out in support of President Barack Obama, saying that 'what the president has done for Israel in the security area is without precedent.'

. . . .

Asked about the level of antagonism toward Obama among some American Jews, Ross said that he believes that much of it comes from people 'who didn't vote for him before and are not inclined to vote for him now.' He said that much of it stems from 'disinformation' and from 'a highly polarized environment in America.'"

Ah yes, "disinformation."

I suppose it is also "disinformation" that is causing Israeli Jews to "prefer Republican candidate Mitt Romney over US President Barack Obama by an almost 3:1 margin, according to a 'Peace Index' poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University that was released Sunday" (http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=289600).

Oh, those foolish Israelis, who, faced with extermination from Iran, are incapable of understanding what's best for them . . . .

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Dennis Ross, "Iran Is Ready to Talk": Indeed, Iran Has Always Been Ready to "Talk"

Dennis Ross, long considered a friend of Israel, is, as described in his New York Times contributor op-ed entitled "Iran Is Ready to Talk" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/15/opinion/give-diplomacy-with-iran-a-chance.html?ref=opinion), "a former State Department and National Security Council official," who served as "a special assistant to President Obama for the Middle East, Afghanistan and South Asia from 2009 to 2011." In his contributor op-ed, Ross lists a litany of factors why Iran, "reeling from sanctions," should now be willing to enter into meaningful diplomatic negotiations regarding its nuclear weapons development program, thus precluding the need for military action:

• The Assad regime, Iran's only ally in the Arab world and its conduit for arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, is falling.
• Saudi Arabia is willing to boost oil production to ameliorate any damage resulting from Europe's forthcoming boycott of Iranian oil.
• Iran can't do business with any reputable bank.
• Iran's oil industry needs $100 billion in investments owing to aging infrastructure.
• The Iranian rial has lost much of its value against the dollar.
• India in the future will pay for Iranian oil with rupees.

Ross acknowledges that Iran may just be playing for time, but claims:

"Iran is now signaling that it is interested in diplomacy. Its foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, has declared that Iran will resume talks with the five permanent members of the Security Council and the Germans. He recently said that Iran would discuss Russia’s step-by-step proposal to defuse the nuclear standoff, which Iran refused to entertain when a variation of it was first broached last year."

Ross acknowledges that Iran might use the talks to continue pursuing its nuclear weapons program, but then it would face heightened economic pressure when the European oil boycott goes into effect in July. Observing Obama’s "stated determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons," Ross concludes that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei "will have to decide what poses a greater threat to his rule: ending his quest for nuclear weapons or stubbornly pursuing them as crippling economic pressures mount."

What's wrong with Ross's analysis? If Iran was a Western European nation, his arguments would make sense. But it's not. According to Israeli intelligence assessments, Iran is willing to sacrifice half of its population as part of a war to eradicate the "Zionist cancer." Sorry, Dennis, but this has been the shortcoming of Obama policy toward Iran for the past three years: Iran does not "think" according to Western logic, and although Iranian diplomats are talented chess players and know how to bluff the West, its nuclear weapons program is the sine qua non of the Khamenei regime. Abandonment of nuclear weapons development by Khamenei would be an act of shame, and Iran will continue to suffer economic sanctions until its first atomic bomb is ready, which the mullahs believe will prove a game changer.

Talk? Sure Iran has always been prepared to talk until the cows come home. However, Iran is also adamant about building its bomb and knows no fear of Obama, who has drawn too many lines in the sand over the past three years.