1. Were Iran to initiate a war with Israel, either directly or via its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah and/or Syria), Ahmadinejad might sense that he could relieve the pressure building on the streets of Tehran against his regime.
2. Obama continues to draw lines in the sand, and now, instead of the "crippling" sanctions against Iran that had long been threatened at yearend, his administration is considering a "more calibrated approach" involving "targeted" sanctions. Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad has come to regard Obama as a paper tiger.
3. Egypt continues to build a steel wall under its border with Gaza, which could choke off, to some degree, additional military supplies. In the interim, Hamas has fully replenished its rocket supply, and after a cowardly military display during Operation Cast Lead - its forces stripped off their uniforms and avoided pitched battles with the Israel Defense Forces - Hamas may be looking to regain some of its honor. Note the recent Cast Lead anniversary commemoration which was almost entirely ignored by Gazans.
4. Hezbollah's backing and popularity among Lebanon's Shiites is premised in no small part upon its ability to distribute Iranian funding to its social welfare network of schools, clinics, etc. Eliminate their funding, deprive them of their steady flow of Iranian weaponry and training, and the house of cards collapses. As such, Hezbollah head, Nasrallah, will likely abide by any determination of his Persian mentors, notwithstanding the likelihood of sledgehammer Israeli retaliation.
War or no war? It's a coin toss. The more upbeat, flip side of the coin? Here's one possible scenario:
1. The dissidents again take to the streets in Tehran and dislodge Ahmadinejad, who is replaced by Mousavi. Mousavi is anything but a "reformist"; while prime minister of Iran in the past, he refused to tolerate dissent and was responsible for the execution of thousands of opponents of the regime. Also, while prime minister, he refused to seek the release of the U.S. embassy hostages, and he was instrumental in creating Hezbollah.
2. Mousavi, who now claims he is "ready for martyrdom", is nevertheless a pragmatist and a survivor, and as prime minister, he may decide that Iran can no longer afford to pay for its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, given Iran's weakened economy. He might also seek some sort of lukewarm relationship with Obama.
3. Don't get your hopes up too high: Mousavi will still try to pursue Iran's program for the development of nuclear weapons. The name of the game remains Middle East hegemony.
4. Israel is granted a temporary reprieve from what stands to be a brutal war in which Israel's civilian population would be targeted. At least Mousavi, unlike Ahmadinejad, acknowledges that the Holocaust did in fact occur.
When asked by friends what I want most in life, my steadfast reply is "boredom". Let's hope for a "boring" 2010, free of military threats and war.
