Assad's Tanks Firing on Daraa in Syria: Another Hama Massacre?

In February 1982, President Hafez al-Assad of Syria destroyed much of the town of Hama, killing anywhere between 10,000 and 40,000 civilians, in order to quash a revolt by its Sunni Muslim inhabitants.

Today, Hafez al-Assad's son, Bashar al-Assad, is sending his tanks against the southern Syrian town of Daraa, and the bodies of civilians are again lying in the street (see: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/25/us-syria-idUSLDE73N02P20110425).

Why has Obama not recalled the ambassador he appointed to Syria in December without U.S. Senate confirmation (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/04/recall-us-ambassador-to-syria-now-shame.html)?

Where is Hillary Clinton, who referred to Bashar al-Assad as a "reformer"? Where is John Kerry, who, together with his wife, repeatedly enjoyed the hospitality of Assad in Damascus? And where is Nancy Pelosi, who labeled Assad a "model Arab leader"?

We do know the whereabouts of Jimmy Carter, who has often met with Assad and bragged that he has known the Syrian leader since he was a college student. Carter and his traveling troupe, "The Elders", is now off to North Korea, although he doesn't know whom he will be meeting there (see: http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=217784).

Instead of Pyongyang, how about another trip to Damascus, Jimmy, to meet with your good friend Bashar? You might even ask him to stop killing his countrymen.

Spread of Daraa Revolt Spells Assad's Demise: Where Will the Syrian Dictator Go?

Yesterday's protests in Syria spread beyond the southern city of Daraa to Damascus, Homs, Latakia, Hama and Sanamein, despite the brutal shootings of demonstrators by the internal security service, and President Bashar al-Assad's days are numbered.

Notwithstanding the demands of the demonstrators for greater political freedom, the Assad regime is being brought down by the failure of its economy. Syria's agriculture sector employs some 30 percent of its labor force, and much emphasis has been placed in recent years on achieving food self-sufficiency and stemming rural migration. However, Syria's most important cash crop is cotton, which demands much water, and a five-year drought has had catastrophic consequences.

Syria's limited oil reserves are also dwindling.

Add to this volatile mixture the fact that Assad is an Alawite. Alawites, who comprise 10% of Syria's population, are considered by many to be a Shiite sect; however, there are those Sunnis who say that Alawites are not even Muslims. Syria's population of some 22 million is 70% Sunni, and there is much pent up hostility toward Assad, who, like his father, has sought to preserve power by populating the military and secret service leadership with fellow Alawites.

Assad is finished. Unlike the situation in Libya, he cannot attempt to bomb dissident "tribes" into submission, although his father succeeded with a variation of this tactic in 1982, when the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood revolted in Hama, and Hafez al-Assad responded by killing as many as 40,000 of the city's inhabitants. Today, with the entire world watching, Bashar Assad, the son, cannot dare consider this kind of massacre, particularly given that protests are no longer confined to Daraa.

The implications of Assad's demise? Multifold, although there is no way of knowing how it will all pan out. Shiite Iran will almost undoubtedly lose a key partner, and without Assad's proximity and patronage, Hezbollah, already facing budget cuts as the result of reduced Iranian funding, will be dramatically weakened.

Assad and his family will soon go into exile, but who will receive them? John Kerry? Vogue? Maybe Iran - at least until the dissidents again take to the streets in Tehran, which will not be long in coming.

Assad's Fate in the Hands of the Kurds

Although they number 30 million, you rarely read of the horrific persecution against the Middle East's Kurds in the world's leading English language newspapers: No mention of the "plight of the Kurds", no mention of pogroms against the Kurds, no mention of "flotillas" bringing much needed aid to the Kurds, and no mention of efforts to purge the Kurds of their cultural identity.

The Kurds are to be found in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria, and have long sought independence. Only in Iraq, following the First Gulf War and the imposition of a no-fly zone over Saddam's Iraq, were the Kurds able to establish some measure of self-governance.

This, however, may soon change.

In Syria Kurds total some 10% of the population. As observed in my prior blog entry, an unprecedented five-year drought in Syria has decimated farmlands, caused hundreds of thousands of persons to abandon their rural villages and migrate to Syrian cities, and has reduced three million people to extreme poverty. Kurd villages in particular have been hard struck by this disaster.

Although they have yet to join the protests that started in the southern Syrian city of Daraa, Damascus is becoming increasingly nervous about Kurdish intentions.

As reported in a CNN article entitled "Kurds in Syria 'waiting to take to the streets,' academic says" (http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/24/syria.kurds/index.html?hpt=T2), a revolt is simmering:

"The Kurds, representing around 10% of the country's population, are 'ready, watching and waiting to take to the streets, as their cause is the strongest,' according to Robert Lowe, manager of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Largely concentrated along the borders with Turkey and Iraq in the northeast of the country, the Kurds have long been described as a repressed minority in Syria. Since the break-up of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, they have fought for an independent Kurdistan with fellow Kurds in Iran, Iraq and Turkey. Their situation in Syria has been particularly difficult in the past five decades.

'They didn't have problems before this regime,' said Obeida Nahas, director of the Levant Institute, a London-based Syrian think tank. 'Now they are denied the right to speak or even write in their own language and are told to use Arab names.'"

Although the prospect of granting independence to the Middle East's 30 million Kurds poses a nightmare for Turkey, which also has a history of oppressing its Kurdish minority, it is high time that the Kurds be granted liberty and cultural freedom.

Assad to Improve Living Standards in Syria: Yeah, Right!

After his security personnel slaughtered more than 100 protesters in the city of Daraa over the past several days, Assad has today announced, according to Reuters, his intention to improve Syrian living standards:

"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ordered on Thursday the formation of a committee to raise living standards and study scrapping emergency law that has governed Syria for the last 48 years, his adviser said.

Assad did not order security forces to fire at protesters in the southern city of Deraa, Bouthaina Shaaban said at a news conference in the Syrian capital."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/24/syria-assad-committee-idUSLDE72N20320110324

Maybe someone (his buddy, John Kerry?) should tell Assad that it's hard to improve civilian living standards when much of a country's GDP is devoted to providing armaments to Hezbollah and maintaining hegemony over Lebanon.

It is also difficult to improve civilian living standards when an unprecedented five-year drought has decimated farmlands, caused hundreds of thousands of persons to abandon their rural villages and migrate to Syrian cities, and has reduced three million people to extreme poverty.

Yes, Syria could benefit from Israeli desalinization technology, but far more important to Assad is maintenance of his tyrannical hold over the country.

As I mentioned in an earlier blog entry, the protests in Daraa and the subsequent escalation of hostilities between Hamas, whose leadership resides in Damascus, and Israel is no accident. If Assad can distract the Syrian street by encouraging a new war between Hamas and Israel, the Syrian dictator is willing to fight until the last Palestinian.

Syria, Facing Internal Dissension, Orders Hamas to Fire Mortars at Israel

This morning 50 mortars shells were fired from Gaza at civilian targets in southern Israel. Hamas's Izzadin Kassam Brigades took partial responsibility for the unprovoked attack. Two Israelis were lightly wounded.

Hamas, whose leadership resides in Damascus, would not dare undertake a provocation of this kind without the express approval of Assad. What has happened? Simple: On Friday there was a demonstration against the Assad regime in the Syrian city of Daraa, which is some 60 miles south of Damascus, during which five demonstrators were killed. Today, Syrian police fired tear gas at 10,000 persons who came to attend the funeral of two of the victims.

Concerned by calls for revolution in light of events elsewhere in the Middle East, Assad is seeking a quick fix by distracting the population with renewed fighting between Israel and Hamas.

Will Assad's ploy work? Probably not, but we have yet to see the full Israeli response to this act of war by Hamas and friends.