Gary Sick, "A Stealth Engagement of Iran?": Tergiversations

"Tergiversation," according to Merriam-Webster (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tergiversation):

1. evasion of straightforward action or clear-cut statement: equivocation

In an article entitled "Frustrated US rambles on Iran: Gary Sick" (http://presstv.com/detail/223089.html), Iran's Press TV refers us to an article written by Gary Sick, entitled "A Stealth Engagement of Iran?" (http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2012/01/17/stealth-engagement-iran), which was published by The World Policy Institute. Yes, it is of course significant that Iran has chosen to highlight this opinion piece.

In his article, Gary Sick, "an adjunct professor of Middle East politics at Columbia's School of International & Public Affairs" and "the principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis," observes recent "tergiversations in U.S. policy pronouncements": Both Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have coupled denunciations and threats over Iran's ongoing efforts to attain nuclear weapons with calls for renewed negotiations and avoidance of any armed conflict. Sick ponders whether these conflicting declarations reflect "pure chaos and incompetence in the White House," or whether the White House is engaged in a highly sophisticated attempt to manage three problems:

• Congress, which in an election year, has maneuvered Obama into signing the Defense Authorization Bill with the latest sanctions rider, amounting, according to Sick, to "a tacit declaration of war."
• Obama's desire to avoid war and return to negotiations.
• Netanyahu's threats "to strike unilaterally if necessary" and to use those threats "to keep the situation at a constant crisis pitch, while pressing for the most extreme sanctions."

According to Sick, "if you throw enough anti-Iran dust in the air, you may defuse any concerted attack—figuratively or otherwise."

So is there chaos in the White House, or, is there indeed a master plan to talk through both sides of your mouth in order to preseve the status quo?

Indeed, there has been much doublespeak emerging from the Obama White House (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/iran-and-obama-administration.html), and Obama, the Procrastinator-in-Chief, would prefer to avoid a conflagration. However, Obama will also do anything and everything to be re-elected, and this single consideration will determine Obama's policy toward Iran over the coming months. The short-term effect of an increase in the price of oil on the U.S. economy and the receptiveness of the US electorate to bellicose statements issued by Romney and Gingrich, painting Obama as a patsy, are all being monitored by the West Wing.

One final observation: Sick's conjecture that the leak, alleging that Mossad personnel, pretending to be CIA agents, recruited Iranian dissidents, was linked to cancellation of Austere Challenge, a joint US/Israeli anti-missile exercise scheduled for April, is not grounded in reality.

Maureen Dowd, "Kevin Warns Republicans": Obama's Looming Crisis With Iran

In "Kevin Warns Republicans" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/opinion/kevin-warns-republicans.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss), Maureen Dowd allows her brother Kevin, whom Maureen terms her "favorite conservative," to write a column, which, just this once, provides some much needed balance to the lopsidely liberal New York Times opinion page. Maureen tells us that Kevin has survived kidney cancer, and I would like to wish him a speedy and complete recovery and many more joyous Christmases with his family.

With a razor-sharp wit akin to that of his sister, Kevin aptly observes:

"It will be easy to benchmark [Obama's job performance as president] since he left office after two years and nine months to campaign full time for the same job but this time as the Republican populist Teddy Roosevelt."

Obama, who is a virtuoso campaigner, yet a dilettantish executive, indeed wishes this were so. Unfortunately for the president, he is soon to face a crisis with the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is likely to define his presidency.

As reported yesterday by CNN (http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/27/markets/oil_iran/index.htm):

"'If Iran oil is banned, not a single drop of oil will pass through Hormuz Strait,' Iran's 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said Tuesday, according to the Iran State News Agency.

Iran is also currently conducting Naval exercises in and around the Strait.

. . . .

Investment bank Merrill Lynch predicts a $40 rise in oil prices if the country's 2.2 million barrels day of crude are shut off completely."

This Iranian threat follows a dramatic change of heart by the Obama administration concerning Iran's development of nuclear weapons (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/us-secretary-of-defense-reverses-course.html). After learning that Iran is further along with its development program than previously thought and after being warned that Saudi Arabia will also seek such weapons if the Iranians are not stopped, Obama has belatedly begun to talk tough. In response, however, the Iranians have upped the ante and are talking even tougher.

Who blinks first? The stakes -- including the health of the American economy -- are high, and this could well prove to be Obama's "Cuban Missile Crisis." Moreover, his handling of this predicament will determine whether Obama is awarded a second term in office.

Interesting, also, is the timing of the "Austere Challenge" joint missile defense exercise planned by the U.S. and Israel for April 2012. The exercise is large, and is also being afforded publicity never seen in the past (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/12/joint-israelus-missile-defense-exercise.html).

Obama's fate now rests in his own hands and will not be determined by the quibbling of a lackluster Republican field of presidential candidates. He will not be able to escape the rigors of government and the taxing demands placed on the commander-in-chief during the coming year, as Tehran puts his rickety backbone to the test.

"Austere Challenge": Massive Israel/US Missile Defense Exercise in April

Yaakov Katz writes in a Jerusalem Post article entitled "US commander visits Israel to finalize missile drill" (http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=250249) that Israel and the US are planning a joint missile defense exercise in April 2012:

Last week, Lt.-Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force based in Germany, visited Israel to finalize plans for the upcoming drill, expected to see the deployment of several thousand American soldiers in Israel.

The drill, which is unprecedented in its size, will include the establishment of US command posts in Israel and IDF command posts at EUCOM headquarters in Germany – with the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.

The US will also bring its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and shipbased Aegis ballistic missile defense systems to Israel to simulate the interception of missile salvos against Israel.

The American systems will work in conjunction with Israel’s missile defense systems – the Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome.

As reported by the Israeli Air Force (http://iaf.org.il/4376-38307-en/IAF.aspx):

"The purpose of [Lt.-Gen. Frank Gorenc's] visit is to practice commands and mutual regulations, in the fields as well as in the command center, as a part of preparation for the ["Austere Challenge" exercise]", says Lieutenant Colonel Dedi Meiri, Commander of the Flight Squadron in the Active Defense Wing. "We're showing the General the fields, what really goes on in the batteries. Then we'll practice system cooperation and coordination in the ITB, such as 'Arrow' and 'David's Sling'".

The Lieutenant General's tour began at Battery A' of the "Iron Dome", which intercepted a rocket fired toward Israel from the Gaza Strip over the past weekend.

Lieutenant General Gorenc was hosted by Brigadier General Doron Gavish, Commander of the Aerial Defense Formation, who also led the tour. At the battery, the Lieutenant General met with Lieutenant Colonel Gilad Biran, Commander of the "Iron Dome" Unit and with Captain Elad Tzinamon, Commander of the Battery, who explained to him the structure of the battery, how the system works and the "Discovery to Warning" system.

The fanfare attending the upcoming "Austere Challenge" exercise is unusual. Israeli is deeply indebted to the US for this show of support, given the imminent threat of combined missile attacks from Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.

Enough said.