Thomas Friedman, "Cabs, Camels or ISIS": Islands of Decency in the Muslim Middle East?

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"Islands of decency" in the Muslim Middle East?

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Cabs, Camels or ISIS," would-be Middle East expert Thomas Friedman provides us with his thoughts on how to handle the Islamic State in the aftermath of the Paris attacks. Tom Terrific would have us know:

"The context within which Arabs and Muslims live their lives really matters. And in too many places they’ve had only two choices — SISI or ISIS — the iron fist of generals, like Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who is trying to stifle all dissent, or the ISIS madness that says the only way forward is to take the Arab-Muslim world backward.

Fortunately, there is a third way: the autocracies, monarchies and a few frail democracies that have invested in their people and created islands of decency — Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Kurdistan, Kuwait, Morocco and the U.A.E. — where more young Arabs and Muslims can realize their full potential and build their dignity by disrupting camels and cabs — not Paris and Beirut."

If I was reading this op-ed on an airplane, right about now I would be reaching for the vomit bag.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is an "island of decency"? Some 70 percent of the population of Jordan, which was carved out of the Palestinian Mandate by Britain in 1922, consists of Palestinians who suffer from discrimination. "Honor killings" against women in Jordan? There are far too many, and they are effectively condoned by the government.

Lebanon, which plays host to Hezbollah and which has witnessed unrelenting civil war and savagery among its Shiite, Sunni, Maronite Christian and Druze inhabitants, is an island of decency? Two suicide bombings in Beirut killed 43 people on Thursday.

Kuwait, whose wealthy denizens have been channeling millions of dollars to the Islamic State, is an island of decency? Spare me!

Friedman continues his opinion piece by observing:

"For me, the big strategic question in Iraq and Syria is: What would it take to uproot ISIS and create a Sunni island of decency in its place? For starters, that requires an honest assessment of how big the challenge is.

Sixty years ago Asian dictators told their people in effect, 'I am going to take away your freedom — but give you the best education, export-led economics and infrastructure that money can buy — and in a half-century you’ll build a middle class that will gradually take your freedom back.' In the Arab world, 60 years ago dictators told their people, in effect, 'I am going to take away your freedom and give you the Arab-Israeli conflict, a shiny object to distract you from my corruption and predation.'

That difference, 60 years later, has produced the Asian economic miracle and fueled the Arab civilizational meltdown/disorder in Yemen, Libya, Syria and Iraq."

Hold on, Tom! China's citizenry is taking its freedom back? How the hell do you ignore the country's three million slaves who manufacture cheap consumer goods for the West? And although Iran leads the world in per capita executions, China executes more people per year than all other countries combined. Mention by Friedman of China's brutal occupation of Tibet? Not a chance.

Or stated otherwise, Friedman's comparison of China with the Muslim Middle East is moronic, but when has that ever stopped him from writing drivel?

Friedman's erudite conclusion:

"To sustainably defeat bad ISIS Sunnis you need good non-ISIS Sunnis to create an island of decency in their place."

Ah yes, replace the bad Sunnis with the good Sunnis. Holy cow, Tom cracked the case! Unless, of course, you prefer one of the competing bullshit narratives proffered by Brooks and Ignatius . . .

Syria's Druze Are In Danger

Some basic facts concerning Syria:

• Population of some 23 million.
• More than 3 million Syrians have fled to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
• Some 6.5 million persons are internally displaced in Syria as a result of the fighting.

Some basic facts concerning the Druze:

• The Druze religion is an 11th Century offshoot of Shia Islam.
• Some 700,000 Druze live mostly in the mountainous southwest section (the "Jebel al-Druze") of what used to be Syria.
• 220,000 Druze live in Lebanon.
• 140,000 Druze live in Israel, where they serve in the Israeli armed forces and where members of this sect have been elected to the Israeli parliament from various political parties.

Until recently, some 90 percent of the Druze living in the Golan Heights, taken from Syria by Israel in the 1967 Six Day War, have continued to profess loyalty to the Assad regime, given their expectation that the Golan Heights would ultimately be returned to Syria. In addition, Assad is an Alawite, and the Alawis, comprising some 12 percent of Syria's population, are also an offshoot of Shi'ism. Or stated otherwise, both the Druze and the Alawites are considered heretics by some Muslims.

Recently, 20 Druze were shot to death by the Sunni al-Nusra front in Syria's Idlib province at a time when Assad's forces are forcing young Druze men to join them at gunpoint. As reported in a BBC article entitled "Syria's Druze under threat as conflict spreads" by Faisal Irshaid:

"For a long time, the majority of Syrian Druze remained loyal to President Bashar al-Assad - a member of the heterodox Shia Alawite sect - fearing that if he was overthrown, minorities would be targeted and communities destroyed by extremists among the country's Sunni majority.

. . . .

But with government forces suffering a string of defeats since December, signs of dissent have become more visible among Druze.

. . . .

The chief of staff of the Israeli military - in which hundreds of Druze serve, many of them in high-ranking positions - said it would act if needed to prevent a massacre in the Syrian Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had 'given instructions to do what is necessary', without elaborating.

In Lebanon, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt strongly condemned the shooting, but insisted it was an isolated incident.

Mr Jumblatt, a staunch opponent of President Assad, called on Syrian Druze to support the rebellion in their country, arguing that the real threat to them came from a government that killed dozens of people every day."

The pot continues to boil . . .

[For the latest concerning Syria's Druze, have a look at an article published today by DEBKAfile, "Syrian Druze gain non-belligerence commitment from rebels under joint US-Jordanian guarantee."]

Israel's Next War: Just Around the Corner

All is quiet on the border with Gaza. Israel's recent war with Hamas and Islamic Jihad set the economy of Gaza back by a decade, and it will be quite some time before these two terror organizations dare send another rocket into Israel.

On the other hand, the quiet on Israel's northern border with Lebanon is deceptive. Shiite Hezbollah refused to intervene on behalf of Sunni Hamas's behalf, given the brutal fighting in Syria between these two sects of Islam. (Hamas, of course, moved its headquarters from Damascus to Qatar owing to this tension.) However, the Israeli military is now busy preparing for a Hezbollah attack across the Lebanese border into northern Israel. As reported by Marissa Newman in a Times of Israel article entitled "Hezbollah could advance into Israel in next war, official warns":

"A senior IDF official warned Sunday that while Hezbollah has no immediate plan to attack Israel, a minor security incident could erupt into a full-fledged war on Israel’s northern front during which the terror organization would likely try to capture swaths of the Galilee.

. . . .

According to the assessment, Hezbollah could capture the Rosh Hanikra area, including a small Israeli town near the border with Lebanon, for several hours, if Israel does not strike the group preemptively.

He said the army was working on a plan to evacuate the northern residents if need be, but warned there would be casualties on the Israeli side."

Any such war will necessarily involve a deep ground penetration by Israel into Lebanon in order to stanch the firing of missiles at Israeli civilian targets. Hezbollah has received from Iran and Syria more than 50,000 missiles, which can hit anywhere in Israel.

Israeli civilian casualties? There will be many, unless Israel launches a preemptive attack.

Israel can only hope that when this happens (not if it happens), there will be a new US president, who will not seek to cut off arms deliveries in the middle of the fighting.

Thomas Friedman, "What to Do With the Twins?": Begin by Ignoring Friedman

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "What to Do With the Twins?" (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/18/opinion/thomas-friedman-the-conundrum-of-a-unified-iraq-and-a-unified-syria.html?ref=opinion&_r=0), would-be Middle East expert Thomas Friedman compares the chaos in Iraq with the pandemonium in Syria. Friedman's conclusion:

"Pluralism came to Europe only after many centuries of one side or another in religious wars thinking it could have it all, and after much ethnic cleansing created more homogeneous nations. Europe also went through the Enlightenment and the Reformation. Arab Muslims need to go on the same journey. It will happen when they want to or when they have exhausted all other options. Meanwhile, let’s strengthen the islands of decency — Tunisia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon and Kurdistan — and strengthen our own democracy to insulate ourselves as best we can."

Arab Muslims need to go on the same journey as Europe? Fascinating. During the Thirty Years' War, the populations of the various German states, Bohemia, Italy and the Low Countries were decimated by massacres, famine and disease. It has been estimated that the population of the German states was reduced by up to 40 percent. And then there was also the "small matter" of witch hunts during the same period. Arab Muslims must experience this same tragedy?

Friedman's islands of decency? No mention by Tom that some 70 percent of Jordan's population consists of Palestinians (Jordan comprises 78 percent of the original Palestine Mandate), who continue to suffer discrimination and hardship at the hands of their Hashemite rulers.

Lebanon? No mention by Tom of the on persistent fighting between Sunnis and Shiites in this country or the presence of Hezbollah, whose military wing, which is infinitely stronger than the Lebanese army and which takes marching orders from Iran, is now deployed in Syria. As reported in March by Lebanon's Daily Star (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2014/Mar-23/251086-29-killed-so-far-in-n-lebanon-fighting.ashx#ixzz34xQpOkgl):

"Intermittent sniper fire and fierce overnight clashes between rival neighborhoods in the troubled northern city of Tripoli dashed hopes Sunday for an end to the fighting that has claimed 29 lives so far.

Two people, including a 12-year-old boy, were killed and one person was wounded late Saturday, reportedly when a personal dispute escalated into armed clashes in Bab al-Tabbaneh.

. . . .

The incident raised the death toll from 10 days of fighting to 29, the highest number of casualties from a single round of fighting since the uprising in Syrian began in 2011, eventually spilling over into Tripoli where supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad now regularly engage in gunbattles."

Tunisia? As reported by Tunisialive (http://www.tunisia-live.net/2014/06/11/man-burns-daughter-to-death-in-suspected-honor-killing/) earlier this week:

"A Tunisian man is accused of burning his 13-year-old daughter to death for walking home from school with a male classmate May 28 in Ibn Khaldoun, a suburb of Tunis. Aya, a middle school student, died on June 7 from fourth-degree burns, Kapitalis and other local news sources reported."

Obama reads and is influenced by Friedman's tripe? Lord help us!

Mohamad Chatah, Former Lebanese Ambassador to the US, Assassinated in Beirut by Hezbollah

Mohamad Chatah, who was the Lebanese Ambassador to the US from 1997 to 2000 and who also served as Lebanon's finance minister and as an adviser to Prime Minister Saad Hariri, was assassinated today in Beirut by Hezbollah. No such action by Hezbollah is perpetrated without the express permission of Iran.

Meanwhile, the UK is mediating secret talks between Hezbollah and Washington, following the "success" of secret talks between Washington and Iran held in Oman.

Thanks, Obama.

Obama's Friend Putin Rushes to Fill a Middle East Power Vacuum

And so it continues:

In Syria, Shiite fighters from Lebanon (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/hezbollah-boosting-assads-forces-in-northern-syria/2013/06/02/3bb59c7e-cb9e-11e2-8f6b-67f40e176f03_story.html), Iraq (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraqi-shiites-fight-for-syrian-government/2013/05/26/6c3c39b4-c245-11e2-914f-a7aba60512a7_story.html?hpid=z10) and Yemen (http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Yemen-Houthis-fighting-for-Assad-in-Syria-315005) are hurrying to prop up Kerry's "dear friend" Assad in his battle against al-Qaeda backed rebel forces.

Arab Gulf states are considering punitive action against Iran's surrogate Hezbollah for its involvement in Syria (see: http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/02/Gulf-FMs-reject-Iranian-interference-in-GCC-countries-.html).

Meanwhile, the fighting in Syria is spreading into Lebanon and threatening to destabilize this country as well (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jun-03/219235-deadly-clash-opens-new-chapter-of-syria-war-in-lebanon.ashx#axzz2V4UtEFgW).

Iraq is experiencing a new wave of sectarian bombings (see: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57586800/new-wave-of-bombings-in-iraq-leaves-at-least-30-dead/).

And in Turkey, an open street rebellion has sprouted against the tyranny of Erdogan, one of Obama's "five top interatnional friends" (see: http://www.todayszaman.com/news-269076-obama-names-turkeys-erdogan-among-top-five-international-friends.html), whose AKP Party has jailed more journalists than any other country in the world (see: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/02/2013217124044793870.html).

Now surely you remember President Obama's open microphone gaffe in Seoul in March 2012, when he asked for "space" from Putin in exchange for "flexibility" after the presidential election in November:

President Obama: On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it's important for him [Putin] to give me space.

President Medvedev: Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you…

President Obama: This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility.

President Medvedev: I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir.

So how is Obama's friend Putin responding to this regional crisis?

Russia is pouring fuel on the fire by threatening to send advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-unlikely-ship-300-missiles-syria-autumn-interfax-081448222.html) and MiG-29 fighter planes (http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Russian-papers-S-300-delivery-to-Syria-not-before-2014-315006) to Syria. This comes on the heels of Putin's decision in March to deploy Russia's navy in the Mediterranean on a permanent basis (see: http://news.yahoo.com/russia-send-nuclear-submarines-southern-seas-123741129.html).

Israel has gone on record as stating that it will destroy the S-300 antiaircraft system if it is delivered to Assad (see: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168493).

Putin's action follows Obama's inaction in response to the use of chemical weapons by Assad against Syrian rebels. Putin is well aware that Obama's "red lines" are meaningless.

In short, a power vacuum has been created in the Middle East owing to a perception of American infirmity, and Russia is rushing to fill it. It remains to be seen whether this chaos, being fanned by Putin, will spread to Arab regimes in the Gulf, which have been traditionally friendly to the US.

Hezbollah vs. al-Qaeda: "Freddy vs. Jason"

Did you happen to see the 2003 movie "Freddy vs. Jason," a 2003 American slasher film, which pits Freddy Krueger from "A Nightmare on Elm Street" against Jason Voorhees from "Friday the 13th"? Quite honestly I never saw it, and it's certainly not on my list. (I don't think you can pay me enough money to watch it.) So why even mention this "classic" flick?

As reported by Lebanon's Daily Star (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-21/217817-hezbollah-role-in-syria-grows-more-prominent.ashx#axzz2TqlVMRsw) in an article entitled "Hezbollah role in Syria grows more prominent":

"Hezbollah was drawn deeper into Syria’s civil war as 28 fighters from the group were killed and dozens more wounded while fighting rebels, opposition activists said Monday.

The intense battle in Qusair, part of a government offensive aimed at securing a strategic corridor from Damascus to the Mediterranean coast, drove rebels from large parts of the town.

. . . .

[I]t took Hezbollah troops a few hours to take control of the city’s main square and municipal building. By the end of the day, they had pushed out rebel units, including the AlQaeda-affiliated Nusra Front, from most of Qusair, he said Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation by both sides."

Hmm.

Hezbollah vs. al-Qaeda, Freddy vs. Jason . . .

All fine and good, were it not for the fact that more than 80,000 people, mostly innocent civilians, have died since the start of the uprising in Syria, which has resulted in 1.5 million refugees. (Syria has a total population of some 22 million.) That's a helluva lot of human suffering that has gone ignored by much of the world.

A New War Between Hezbollah and the Syrian Rebels?

As reported by Lebanon's Daily Star (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Feb-20/207161-fsa-says-will-hit-lebanon-in-response-to-hezbollah-fire.ashx#axzz2LMEi0Mgs):

"The rebel Free Syrian Army warned Tuesday it would strike back at Hezbollah if the party did not halt its attacks on Syrian territory.

'If Hezbollah does not stop shelling Syrian territories, villages and unarmed civilians from inside Lebanese territory within 48 hours, we will respond with our arms to the sources of its fire and silence them inside Lebanese territory,' the FSA command said in a statement.

It urged residents in the eastern city of Hermel near the border with Syria to stay away from Hezbollah’s rocket launchers and military posts.

The FSA again accused Hezbollah, a key ally of embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad, of 'committing massacres' in Syria with 'artillery cover from inside Lebanese territory.'"

Or in a nutshell: Assad is growing desparate in his battle against Syrian rebels, and Iran has ordered Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy, to take immediate measures to reduce the pressure on the Syrian mass murderer. Meanwhile, as hundreds more Syrian civilians die in the fighting each week, Obama continues to watch from the sidelines.

Thomas Friedman, "Give Chuck a Chance": Friedman Is Far Worse Than "Disgusting"

In 2006 Chuck Hagel was one of 12 Senators who wouldn't ask the EU to declare Hezbollah, Iran's surrogate in Lebanon, a terrorist organization. Hezbollah was responsible for the 1983 Beirut Barracks Bombing, which killed 241 American soldiers. In 1984, Hezbollah also kidnapped and tortured to death William Francis Buckley, who is buried in Arlington National Cemetery. And then there was also Hezbollah's bombing, at the behest of Iran, of the Jewish community center building in Buenos Aires in 1994, which killed 85 people and injured hundreds.

Today, in a New York Times op-ed entitled "Give Chuck a Chance" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/26/opinion/friedman-give-chuck-a-chance.html?_r=0), Thomas Friedman advocates on behalf of the appointment of Chuck Hagel as Secretary of Defense. Friedman writes:

"I find the opposition to him falling into two baskets: the disgusting and the philosophical. It is vital to look at both to appreciate why Hagel would be a good fit for Defense at this time.

The disgusting is the fact that because Hagel once described the Israel lobby as the 'Jewish lobby' (it also contains some Christians). And because he has rather bluntly stated that his job as a U.S. senator was not to take orders from the Israel lobby but to advance U.S. interests, he is smeared as an Israel-hater at best and an anti-Semite at worst. If ever Israel needed a U.S. defense secretary who was committed to Israel’s survival, as Hagel has repeatedly stated — but who was convinced that ensuring that survival didn’t mean having America go along with Israel’s self-destructive drift into settling the West Bank and obviating a two-state solution — it is now."

Although Friedman and I both spent much time during 1983 in Lebanon, Friedman conveniently forgets to mention in his opinion piece the Beirut Barracks Bombing, Hezbollah or Hagel's refusal to ask the EU to declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Hagel is an appropriate choice for Secretary of Defense? The US servicemen who fell victim to Hezbollah will roll over in their graves if Obama proceeds with this nomination.

How could Friedman forget Hezbollah's involvement in the Beirut Barracks Bombing and Hagel's 2006 position regarding this heinous organization? I suppose you should also be asking how Friedman earlier this month falsely declared that Israel's planned E1 settlements "would sever any possibility of a contiguous Palestinian state" (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2012/12/second-open-letter-to-margaret-sullivan.html).

It is no accident that even The Washington Post opposes the appointment of Hagel as Secretary of Defense (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chuck-hagel-is-not-right-for-defense-secretary/2012/12/18/07e03e20-493c-11e2-ad54-580638ede391_story.html):

"Mr. Hagel’s stated positions on critical issues, ranging from defense spending to Iran, fall well to the left of those pursued by Mr. Obama during his first term — and place him near the fringe of the Senate that would be asked to confirm him."

With respect to Iran's nuclear development program, J. Dana Stuster examines Hagel's 2008 book, "America: Our Next Chapter" in a December 14, 2012 Foreign Policy article (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/14/chuck_hagel_wants_to_be_dwight_eisenhower):

"'Isolating nations is risky,' he writes. 'It turns them inward, and makes their citizens susceptible to the most demagogic fear mongering.' The answer, he says, is engagement. 'Distasteful as we may find that country's rulers, the absence of any formal governmental relations with Iran ensures that we will continue to conduct this delicate international relationship through the press and speeches, as well as through surrogates and third parties, on issues of vital strategic importance to our national interests. Such a course can only result in diplomatic blind spots that will lead to misunderstandings, miscalculation, and, ultimately, conflict.'

So Hagel supports direct negotiations with Iran. He laments the lack of diplomatic ties and toys with the idea of a consulate in Tehran. He also reflects fondly on meetings he had with Iranian ambassadors to the United Nations in New York.

Hagel even flirts with the idea that an Iranian bomb wouldn't be the end of the world. '[T]he genie of nuclear armaments is already out of the bottle, no matter what Iran does. In this imperfect world, sovereign nation-states possessing nuclear weapons capability (as opposed to stateless terrorist groups) will often respond with some degree of responsible, or at least sane, behavior. These governments, however hostile they may be toward us, have some appreciation of the horrific results of a nuclear war and the consequences they would suffer.'"

When it acquires its first nuclear weapon, Iran will "respond with some degree of responsible, or at least sane, behavior"? And for that reason, the US and Israel should ignore almost daily declarations out of Iran, calling for Israel's annihilation? Given how Iran hangs homosexuals, stones to death women, and oppresses its Baha'i, Kurdish and Sunni minorities, I don't share Hagel's blithe optimism concerning Tehran's future conduct. Nor do the Saudis.

America's ally, Israel? Those who read this blog know that I support a two-state solution along the 1967 lines with necessary land swaps, but first there needs to be a Palestinian leader willing to acknowledge Israel's right to exist. Friedman, by chance, also fails to mention that existing Israeli settlements are are built on less than two percent of the total territory of the West Bank.

Friedman lumps those who oppose Hagel's nomination into "two baskets: the disgusting and the philosophical." I believe that there are more than two adjectives that best describe Friedman's opinion pieces, including abominable, odious, abhorrent, contemptible, fetid, invidious, nauseating and sycophantic.

Enough said.

A Freebie for McLean: Lebanon Is Next

On Sunday, thousands of supporters of Lebanon's Future Movement rallied in Tripoli, calling for an end to Iranian dominion over Lebanon by way of its Shiite proxy, Hezbollah. Speakers at the protest denounced Hezbollah's leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, for his assistance, including fighters, to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in attempting to quell the rebellion against his regime.

The rally came after pictures were broadcast by Syrian television of the bodies of a group of Salafist Lebanese fighters, who had been ambushed while crossing into Syria to join the rebel forces (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Dec-03/196970-syria-tv-airs-images-of-dead-lebanese-salafists.ashx#axzz2Dyd5J9yv).

Anger among Lebanon's Sunni and Christian populations against Iran, Syria and Hezbollah is palpable, and after Assad falls in Syria, yet another Lebanese civil war is very much in the cards.

This will be a difficult war for Hezbollah to fight without Assad's backing. In addition, Iran has been cutting back on aid to Hezbollah, owing to its own economic difficulties resulting from sanctions, and Hezbollah is currently hard pressed to maintain both its private army and its social support network.

After Syria, Lebanon Is Next: Are You Smarter Than the CIA?

Are you in the market for a Middle East weathervane? You need go no further than Walid Jumblatt, longstanding leader of Lebanon's Druze minority, who, in a country where many politicians are ultimately assassinated, has managed to keep his wits - and his other body parts - about him. Walid has always known which way the wind is blowing, and he is currently advising Syria's Druze and Alawite minorities to join the revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jul-21/181419-jumblatt-urges-syrian-druze-alawites-to-join-revolt.ashx#axzz21FfwRggY).

You will recall that one month ago, I observed that US intelligence, which claimed that the Assad regime is not apt to lose power any time in the foreseeable future (http://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-syrian-army-stable-despite-defections-213931967.html), was mistaken (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/syria-us-intelligence-mistaken.html).

Well, with the fighting now spreading to Damascus and Aleppo, and with the rebels receiving increasing support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, the fall of the Assad regime is being likened by Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to a "controlled demolition" (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/world/middleeast/us-to-focus-on-forcibly-toppling-syrian-government.html?_r=2). Mr. Tabler is further quoted in that same article as saying, "But like any controlled demolition, anything can go wrong."

Anything can go wrong? True, but sometimes things can also "go right."

First, let me place the conflagration in Syria in better perspective: The revolt in Syria against Bashar al-Assad has now become part of the larger battle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran for hegemony over the Muslim Middle East. Until now, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been waging a proxy war in Yemen. Observe also the attempt by Iran on the life of the Saudi ambassador to the US less than a year ago. Saudi Arabia is now pleased to return the favor by helping bring down Assad, who is a key ally of Iran and also a conduit of Iranian aid to Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon.

In case you didn't know, Hezbollah is already showing signs of strain in Lebanon. In addition to being a perpetrator of terror, as evidenced by its most recent attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, Hezbollah is also a social services agency, looking after the well-being of Lebanon's Shiite community, which forms its political base. With Iran being squeezed - albeit ineffectively - by sanctions, funding of Hezbollah by Iran is down by more than 40% (see: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/12/16/Iran-cuts-Hezbollah-funds-Israel-says/UPI-18921292513073/), and pressure is also being placed on the Lebanese banks which have served as conduits for funding of this terror organization.

When Assad falls, and the movement of arms and funds from Iran becomes more difficult, Hezbollah will be in serious trouble.

Yes, there is a reason that Walid Jumblatt is now sounding off against Bashar al-Assad. Incidentally (some blood-red color commentary), Walid's father, Kamal, was assassinated in 1977 pursuant to orders given by Rifaat al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's uncle. What goes around, ultimately comes around.

When Bashar al-Assad falls, as he ultimately must, look for "change" in Lebanon as well. Lebanon's Sunnis are already beginning to challenge Hezbollah (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Jul-19/181142-syria-uprising-puts-hezbollah-on-defensive.ashx#axzz21PTNGRPm), which will not be able to order Lebanon around without Big Brother Bashar to protect them.

The show has just begun. And those of you who have read this item from beginning to end are now officially smarter than the CIA. Your security analyst certificates are already in the mail . . . not.

Also, a hearty shout-out to my friends in Jeddah (جدّة)!

Thomas Friedman, "Tanks, Jets or Scholarships?": Dumb!

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Tanks, Jets or Scholarships?" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/02/opinion/friedman-tanks-jets-or-scholarships.html), Thomas Friedman informs us from Amman, Jordan that he is continuing his "swing through the Arab world" and "spending as much time as I can with public schoolteachers and students — and young Arabs doing technology start-ups — and as little time as possible with officials." Ah yes, a man of the people.

And having spent this time with teachers and students, Friedman begins his essay be playing "numerology" with his readership:

"And so it came to pass that in 2012 — a year after the Arab awakening erupted — the United States made two financial commitments to the Arab world that each began with the numbers 1 and 3.

It gave Egypt’s military $1.3 billion worth of tanks and fighter jets, and it gave Lebanese public-school students a $13.5 million merit-based college scholarship program that is currently putting 117 Lebanese kids through local American-style colleges that promote tolerance, gender and social equality, and critical thinking. I’ve recently been to Egypt, and I’ve just been to Lebanon, and I can safely report this: The $13.5 million in full scholarships has already bought America so much more friendship and stability than the $1.3 billion in tanks and fighter jets ever will."

Well, anyone who reads this blog knows that I doubt the wisdom of the Obama administration's decision to continue to provide $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, when its military recently stood behind the arrest of 43 NGO workers, of whom 17 were American, engaged in democracy-building work. I also think it unwise to provide this military aid when the leading candidate in Egypt's presidential race said on Sunday that the Camp David peace accords between Egypt and Israel "are a historical document whose place is on the shelves of history" and labeled the agreements "dead and buried" (see: http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/leading-candidate-in-egypt-presidential-race-calls-israel-peace-accord-dead-and-buried-1.427323).

But how does Friedman compare US military aid to Egypt with a scholarship fund for Lebanese students? Praising "President Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah and the members of Congress who got this $13.5 million program going," Friedman fails to mention that the Obama administration is still also backing $100 million in annual military aid to Lebanon, notwithstanding the fact that Lebanon's government is controlled by Hezbollah, which was responsible for assassinating pro-Western Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, and which was also responsible for the 1983 suicide bombing of the US Marines barracks in Beirut, which left 241 American soldiers dead.

Lebanese, particularly its growing Shiite population that is supported by social services provided by Hezbollah using funds from Iran, are going to "love" America owing to a $13.5 million scholarship program?

By the way, the proportion of civilian aid relative to military aid given by the US to Lebanon differs little from the proportion of civilian aid to military aid provided by the US to Egypt.

What do you think? I know what I think: Dumb! Swing on, Tom!

Syria: Obama Likes to Watch

The violence in Syria is spilling over into Lebanon: Yesterday violent clashes erupted between the Sunni and Alawite communities Tripoli in Lebanon's north (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Feb-11/162878-syrian-massacres-jolt-north-lebanon.ashx#axzz1m36ZQ8dp). At the same time, Lebanon's Sunnis, leaving the mosques on Friday, initiated demonstrations against Syrian President Assad throughout the country (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Feb-10/162790-multiple-anti-assad-demos-expected-in-lebanon-friday.ashx#axzz1m36ZQ8dp).

In Syria itself, as the onslaught against Homs continued, twin suicide bombings targeting military intelligence and security force compounds in Allepo killed 28 people and wounded 235 (see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16978803).

What is the Obama administration doing about this chaos? Nothing. As reported by The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/bombings-strike-previously-calm-syrian-city-of-aleppo/2012/02/10/gIQAQyD63Q_story.html):

"The Obama administration and its allies see few, if any, viable options to end the carnage in Syria as President Bashar al-Assad’s forces continue their offensive against the opposition to his rule in what has become the uprising’s most violent month.

. . . .

'What frustrates . . . us is that there are no silver bullets here,' said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. 'There are no good options.'

. . . .

A second administration official, who was not authorized to discuss military matters on the record, said that the U.S. 'focus remains on applying diplomatic and economic pressure on the Syrian regime. Military planning occurs as a matter of course,' the official said. 'As you would expect, some ideas are on the table' for Syria, 'but nothing has been requested. It’s an academic exercise at this stage.'"

No good options? As Russia and Iran send weaponry, and, in the case of Iran, advisors to Assad, Obama is unwilling to provide arms to the rebels to allow them to repel murderous attacks upon civilians by Assad's forces.

Obama has the opportunity to tear Syria away from Iranian suzerainty and in the process cripple Hezbollah in Lebanon, yet he is incapable of seeing his way through to any "viable options."

Meanwhile, Putin is warning against outside interference in Syria (see: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-syria-russia-putin-idUSTRE8171UU20120208), as Russia continues to arm Assad to the hilt (see: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/02/08/pol-cp-syria-russia-arms-protest.html?cmp=rss).

Is Obama capable of standing up to Putin? Not a chance. Moreover, it is an election year, and even in the best of times, Obama, like Chance the Gardener in "Being There," likes to watch.

Hezbollah's Nasrallah Not Ready to Commit Suicide for Iran

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah appeared on Lebanese television on Tuesday via a video link (he refuses to appear in person for fear of being assassinated by Israel) and acknowledged for the first time that Hezbollah is being funded and supplied by Iran (see: http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/02/07/nasrallah-iran-wont-ask-hezbollah-to-intervene-if-attacked-by-israel/):

"We have been receiving since 1982 all kinds of moral, political and material backing from the Islamic Republic of Iran."

It remains to be seen to what extent Iran's current economic woes will impact upon continued funding for Hezbollah.

Perhaps more interesting was Nasrallah's refusal to commit to engaging in a war with Israel, if Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities should be attacked:

"Some are wondering what would happen if Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, and although I rule out this possibility I assure you that the Iranian leadership will not ask Hezbollah to do anything.

On that day, we have to sit down and think before we decide what to do."

Apparently, Nasrallah learned a thing or two from the bombing of southern Beirut, where Hezbollah had its headquarters, during the 2006 Lebanon War. Should there be another war, Iran will not be able to provide the money to rebuild Hezbollah's infrastructure.

Civil War in Syria: Beginning of the End for Assad

Today for the first time, rebels in Syria fired back at the Syrian army when it attempted to enter Homs. After more than two months of peaceful protests in which more than 1,000 civilians have been murdered by Assad's security forces with the assistance of Hezbollah and Iran, the struggle has taken a new turn. As I have stated in the past, Assad will ultimately be forced to flee Syria.

Meanwhile, Obama and Hillary remain by and large silent in the face of this human tragedy. I understand that Obama is still sulking from his encounter with Netanyahu in Washington, and for this reason pointedly refused to intervene on Israel's behalf at last week's G8 summit, where Canada, but not the U.S., objected to a statement linking peace with the Palestinians to the 1967 lines.

In Damascus, where Hamas has its headquarters, Khaled Mashaal is preparing to move the terrorist organization's political wing to Qatar. Qatar, however, is refusing to host its military wing.

Hezbollah, which is armed by Syria and Iran, is also growing alarmed. Without Assad's patronage, Hezbollah's supremacy over Lebanon is threatened.

This coming Friday promises a bloodbath in Syria. Assad for his part is seeking to distract public opinion by again sending Palestinians to crash the Israeli border with Lebanon and Syria on the June 6, 1967 anniversary of the Six Day War (in Arabic, Yawm an-Naksa or "day of the setback").

Turkey, which is holding elections on June 12, is largely ignoring events in neighboring Syria, and its political leadership, busy seeking votes, is focusing on a new flotilla to be sent to break the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza in the third week of June.

Scrutinizing events in Syria and fearful for his own neck, Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, has inked a unity pact with Hamas and now is in talks with Islamic Jihad.

Stay tuned.

New York Times Editorial "President Obama and the Arab Spring": What Is the Source of Their Numbers?

Today's New York Times editorial entitled "President Obama and the Arab Spring" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/opinion/18wed1.html?src=recg) begins:

"It should be no surprise that the ferment in the Arab world has touched the Palestinians, whose promised two-state solution is no closer than ever. On Sunday, the anniversary of Israel’s creation, thousands marching from Syria, Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank breached Israel’s borders and confronted Israeli troops. More than a dozen people were killed; scores were injured."

"More than a dozen people were killed"? What is the source of their numbers? On Israel's border with Syria it is known that at least one, but no more than two persons died when thousands, bussed to the border by Assad, broke down the fence and entered Israel. The fact that more didn't die is evidence of the restraint displayed by the Israeli army when confronting this throng of persons crossing into Israel.

On the Lebanese border my sources tell me that up to four persons died when trying to enter Israel, but most if not all of these persons were shot by the Lebanese army while attempting to control the rioting. Anyone reading this New York Times editorial would be led to believe that Israel was responsible for all of the deaths. This was not the case.

So how did the editorial board of The New York Times determine that "More than a dozen people were killed"? Perhaps The New York Times is basing its account upon a report from the Palestinian Ma'an News Agency (http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=387823); however, Ma'an is known for prejudicial reporting.

Further along in the editorial, The New York Times writes:

"President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority wants a deal but seemed to give up after Mr. Obama couldn’t deliver a promised settlement freeze."

Abbas wants a deal? What kind of a deal? As I noted in my prior blog entry (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/05/mahmoud-abbass-long-overdue-palestinian_16.html), Abbas is content to establish a Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, but this does not involve recognition of Israel. Moreover, his recent pact with Hamas belies any intention to reach a peace agreement with Israel.

The New York Times owes its readers explanations.

[I have sent an e-mail to Andrew Rosenthal and Arthur Brisbane of The New York Times, inquiring whether this editorial violates this newspaper's standards of ethical journalism. Let's see if either of these gentlemen replies.]

The War That Wasn't: Netanyahu Demonstrates Leadership

Last Thursday, Hamas terrorists fired an advanced Kornet anti-tank missile from Gaza at a yellow school bus in southern Israel. Hamas had already learned in early March that Israel's Trophy anti-tank missile defense system, which is now protecting Israel's frontline Merkava tanks, is effective (see: http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=210366), so instead, they took aim at defenseless children. If the bus had still been full when the missile struck and many more children had been wounded and had died, Israel would again have gone into Gaza with its armor and ground forces.

Over this past weekend, some 120 mortar shells, rockets and missiles were fired from Gaza at civilian targets in southern Israel. Israel's new Iron Dome defense system against short-range missiles and mortar rounds, which had been deployed only days earlier, intercepted almost a dozen missiles headed for the Israeli cities of Ashkelon, Ashdod and Beersheva.

Notwithstanding the enormity of the provocation, Israel retaliated with pinpoint strikes against terrorist targets, killing two Hamas military commanders, Rayid Shehadeh and Tayser Abu Snima. Its attacks having proven futile and blunted, Hamas appealed for a truce on Israeli radio (see: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/04/10/hamas-israel-palestinian-ceasefire.html).

This was not an appropriate time for another Israeli ground operation in Gaza. The Ba'athist regime in Syria is teetering as a result of broadening internal protest, and Assad would have welcomed the opportunity created by a war in Gaza by calling for pan-Arab unity in the face of the Zionist aggressor and instructing Hezbollah to fire at Israel from Lebanon.

Netanyahu, who has many detractors both inside and outside of Israel, demonstrated admirable restraint during this difficult period. Without delving into personalities or politics, I believe that Obama, who detests Netanyahu, could learn much from this example of leadership and decision making under fire.

Obama Losing the Middle East: Jordan Warms to Iran

One of the greatest failures of the Obama administration has been its reluctance to oppose the spread of Iranian hegemony throughout the Middle East. As I have noted in prior blog entries:

• Obama wasn't willing to lift a finger for Saad Hariri, and Hezbollah now holds sway in Lebanon.

• Saudi Arabia, furious with Obama for abandoning Mubarak, is currently unwilling to host Hillary or Gates.

• Egypt and Iran may soon be reestablishing full diplomatic ties.

• Jordan is also considering an improvement of its relationship with Tehran.

Re Jordan, the following was recently reported by the Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=237955):

"President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that the Western countries, particularly the United States, are seeking to divide Jordan and annex part of it to the West Bank in an attempt to create the Palestinian state with the aim to save the Zionist regime.

Through implementing this plot they want to save the Zionist regime from annihilation and tell the world that an independent state of Palestine has been formed, Ahmadinejad told reporters at a press conference in Tehran on Monday.

However, these attempts will not save Israel from extinction, he added.

. . . .

The president also announced Jordan’s King Abdullah II has been invited to visit Iran and this visit will be made in the near future."

An American-sponsored break-up of Jordan in order to create a new Palestinian state? This is not in the cards, although Iran is playing upon Abdullah II's paranoia ("Obama forsook Mubarark, and maybe I'm next in line"). On the other hand, a meeting between the Jordanian monarch and Ahmadinejad in Tehran is indeed apt to happen soon.

The Washington Post Reveals Locations of Hezbollah Bunkers

The Washington Post has published maps indicating the locations of Hezbollah bunkers in southern Lebanon (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/Israeli-military-information-on-Hezbollah.html). Why did the Israeli army provide these maps to The Washington Post? Answer: In my opinion, Israel is placing Hezbollah on notice that this costly military infrastructure, financed by Iran, will disappear within less than an hour if they should decide to fire a Scud at Israel.

Now, kindly recall that Roger Cohen sought to equate Hezbollah with the ultra-Orthodox Israeli political party, Shas, in his March 28 op-ed, "Arabs Will Be Free" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/29/opinion/29iht-edcohen29.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss):

"Hezbollah is a political party with a militia. That’s a big problem. Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Shas party has an outsized influence over Israel because of coalition politics. That’s a problem."

How interesting: Hezbollah is a "problem" and Shas is also a "problem". And just to demonstrate to you how much of a problem Shas poses to Israeli democracy, I am showing you below, for the first time, a map of Shas bunkers located throughout Israel:





Where's the map? Sorry, there is no map, and there are no Shas bunkers. There is not even a Shas militia.

Nice try, Roger.

Roger Cohen's "Arabs Will Be Free": Sickening

The following blog entry, which was submitted as an online comment in response to Roger Cohen's op-ed, "Arabs Will Be Free", was censored by The New York Times. Abusive? Not on point? Judge for yourself. To what depths has The New York Times descended? And they want me to purchase an online subscription to their newspaper . . .

In a New York Times op-ed entitled "Arabs Will Be Free" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/29/opinion/29iht-edcohen29.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss), Roger Cohen would equate the democracies of Turkey, Lebanon and Israel. As one who has spent time in all three of these countries, I am deeply disturbed by Cohen's comparison.

In an opinion piece entitled "While democracy is advancing in Turkey", written by Serkan Demirtaş and published on Friday by Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=while-democracy-is-advancing-in-turkey-2011-03-25), it is observed, inter alia, that in Turkey:

• 68 journalists have been jailed, hundreds more are being prosecuted, and this country ranks 138th in the Reporters Sans Frontiers index of countries in terms of free media;
• hundreds of people from academia, civil society and the business world have been held in prison for years without being convicted of any crime;
• there is massive illegal wiretapping;
• personal privacy is violated almost every day, and it is widely believed that the judiciary is no longer independent, the media is biased, and democratic rights and freedoms are limited by growing government pressure.

Regarding Lebanon, Cohen tells us:

"Talk to Hezbollah: That’s obvious. It’s no terrorizing monolith."

Hezbollah is "no terrorizing monolith"? Cohen fails to mention:

• the 2005 murder of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri by Hezbollah;
• Hezbollah's bombing of the Jewish community center building in Buenos Aires in 1994, which killed 85 people and injured hundreds;
• the 1984 kidnap and murder by torture of William Francis Buckley by Hezbollah.
• the 1983 bombing of the Beirut barracks housing the U.S. members of the multinational peacekeeping force in Lebanon, which killed 220 Marines, 18 Navy sailors, and three Army soldiers. Attempts at rescuing survivors from the rubble were subsequently hindered by Hezbollah sniper fire.

I go to sleep and still see the bodies of persons murdered by Hezbollah in my dreams.

Israel's democracy? Not by any means perfect, but how does Cohen begin to compare Israel's ultra-Orthodox Shas party with Hezbollah, which has a "militia" that can easily overpower the Lebanese army, and which is regularly used to intimidate other Lebanese factions. Unlike Shas, which has no military wing whatsoever, Hezbollah currently has an arsenal of more than 40,000 rockets and missiles, provided by Syria and Iran.

The power of Israel's democracy? In Turkey and Lebanon wives, mothers, daughters and sisters are regularly victims of so-called "honor killings". In Israel, on the other hand, a former president has just been sentenced to seven years in prison for raping a former employee and sexually harassing two other women. Although an embarrassment to Israel, it also serves as a reminder of the power of Israeli democracy, where women's rights will not be trampled, where a woman heads the main opposition party, and where a woman serves as the chief justice of Israel's Supreme Court.

Cohen writes:

"Democracy is a messy all-or-nothing business. That’s why I love it. You can no more be a little bit democratic than a little bit pregnant."

Sorry, but I don't buy this. As evidenced by the number of Turkish journalists currently languishing in prison, there are obviously countries that call themselves "democratic", but which do not respect the fundamental principles of this form of government.