After Syria, Lebanon Is Next: Are You Smarter Than the CIA?

Are you in the market for a Middle East weathervane? You need go no further than Walid Jumblatt, longstanding leader of Lebanon's Druze minority, who, in a country where many politicians are ultimately assassinated, has managed to keep his wits - and his other body parts - about him. Walid has always known which way the wind is blowing, and he is currently advising Syria's Druze and Alawite minorities to join the revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Jul-21/181419-jumblatt-urges-syrian-druze-alawites-to-join-revolt.ashx#axzz21FfwRggY).

You will recall that one month ago, I observed that US intelligence, which claimed that the Assad regime is not apt to lose power any time in the foreseeable future (http://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-syrian-army-stable-despite-defections-213931967.html), was mistaken (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.co.il/2012/06/syria-us-intelligence-mistaken.html).

Well, with the fighting now spreading to Damascus and Aleppo, and with the rebels receiving increasing support from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, the fall of the Assad regime is being likened by Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to a "controlled demolition" (see: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/22/world/middleeast/us-to-focus-on-forcibly-toppling-syrian-government.html?_r=2). Mr. Tabler is further quoted in that same article as saying, "But like any controlled demolition, anything can go wrong."

Anything can go wrong? True, but sometimes things can also "go right."

First, let me place the conflagration in Syria in better perspective: The revolt in Syria against Bashar al-Assad has now become part of the larger battle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran for hegemony over the Muslim Middle East. Until now, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been waging a proxy war in Yemen. Observe also the attempt by Iran on the life of the Saudi ambassador to the US less than a year ago. Saudi Arabia is now pleased to return the favor by helping bring down Assad, who is a key ally of Iran and also a conduit of Iranian aid to Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon.

In case you didn't know, Hezbollah is already showing signs of strain in Lebanon. In addition to being a perpetrator of terror, as evidenced by its most recent attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, Hezbollah is also a social services agency, looking after the well-being of Lebanon's Shiite community, which forms its political base. With Iran being squeezed - albeit ineffectively - by sanctions, funding of Hezbollah by Iran is down by more than 40% (see: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/12/16/Iran-cuts-Hezbollah-funds-Israel-says/UPI-18921292513073/), and pressure is also being placed on the Lebanese banks which have served as conduits for funding of this terror organization.

When Assad falls, and the movement of arms and funds from Iran becomes more difficult, Hezbollah will be in serious trouble.

Yes, there is a reason that Walid Jumblatt is now sounding off against Bashar al-Assad. Incidentally (some blood-red color commentary), Walid's father, Kamal, was assassinated in 1977 pursuant to orders given by Rifaat al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad's uncle. What goes around, ultimately comes around.

When Bashar al-Assad falls, as he ultimately must, look for "change" in Lebanon as well. Lebanon's Sunnis are already beginning to challenge Hezbollah (see: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Jul-19/181142-syria-uprising-puts-hezbollah-on-defensive.ashx#axzz21PTNGRPm), which will not be able to order Lebanon around without Big Brother Bashar to protect them.

The show has just begun. And those of you who have read this item from beginning to end are now officially smarter than the CIA. Your security analyst certificates are already in the mail . . . not.

Also, a hearty shout-out to my friends in Jeddah (جدّة)!

New York Times Editorial, "The Killing in Syria Goes On": No Mention of Obama's Culpability

In "The Killing in Syria Goes On" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/opinion/the-killing-in-syria-goes-on.html?_r=1&ref=opinion), the editorial board of The New York Times demands that the Arab League "impose muscular penalties for Mr. Assad’s brutality." It is despicable how far behind the curve the Times has fallen, and I am sickened by the extreme lengths being taken by the Times to shield Obama and friends, i.e. Hillary, Samantha Power, John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Dennis Kucinich, Jimmy Carter and others, from even partial responsibility for this human tragedy.

Obama rode into the Oval Office determined to demonstrate that the countries comprising the Bush administration's "axis of evil" were merely misunderstood and could be won over with tolerance and a kindly outreach program. More specifically, he believed that Israel was the fount of all tensions in the Middle East, and if a peace agreement could be imposed upon a purportedly intransigent Israel, tranquility would prevail throughout the region.

In keeping with this sea change in foreign policy, Obama promptly sent new year's ("Nowruz") greetings to Iran's theocratic leadership in March 2009, referring to the "true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization" and making clear that the US did not seek regime change. Moreover, Obama sat on the sidelines as Iran's population rose in revolt and was slaughtered in the streets following the country's fraudulent June 2009 presidential election.

Regarding Syria, after repeated visits by Senator John Kerry with Assad, Obama appointed a new ambassador, Robert Ford, to Damascus, without Senate confirmation, for the first time since 2005, when Lebanese Prime Minister Rafi Hariri, a friend of the West, was murdered by Hezbollah at the behest of Assad. Obama barely said a word when earlier this year Assad mowed down protesters, but grew uneasy when the number of dead spiraled over 2,000 (now closer to 3,500) and the number of missing also moved into the thousands.

There were embarrassingly belated denunciations from Obama, again "leading from behind," regarding Assad's atrocities, and both the US and the EU were delinquent in imposing sanctions upon the purchase of oil from Syria. Even the Times acknowledged that it had taken Obama too long to call for Assad to step down (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/19/opinion/truth-about-syria.html?_r=1&ref=opinion).

Those who read this blog know:

• In December 2010, I denounced Obama's appointment of Robert Ford as ambassador to Syria (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2010/12/like-thief-in-night-obama-appoints.html).

• In April 2011, I asked that the US ambassador to Damascus be recalled (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/04/recall-us-ambassador-to-syria-now-shame.html). Regrettably, Obama waited until October before removing him (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45013668/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/us-pulls-out-ambassador-syria-over-safety-fears/).

• In June 2011, I predicted that there would be a savage civil war in Syria (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/07/syria-beginning-of-savage-civil-war.html).

• In July 2011, I predicted that elements of the Syrian army will defect and that Assad will abandon Syria with his family. I also questioned whether Syria's Sunnis will be intent upon inflicting revenge upon the ruling Alawite minority (see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2011/08/syria-butchery-ignored-by-arab.html).

I hope that those who read my blog in Arlington agree that I have not been far off the mark. Although it is not clear where Assad and his family will ultimately seek asylum, it is not his intention to die in the same manner as Libya's Qaddafi.

What will be the consequences of Assad's departure? This will certainly complicate efforts by Iran to supply Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon, with weaponry. Also, with Syria, soon to be ruled by its Sunni majority, no longer supporting Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon, there will again be a reshuffling of power among Lebanon's Shiites, Sunnis, Christians and Druze.

Watch for the next move of Walid Jumblatt, leader of Lebanon's Druze, who has always sought to ally himself with those who on the ascendancy and who for many years has served as a reliable weather vane.

Hamas, which rules Gaza, but has headquarters in Damascus, will need to find a new home. Its close association with Assad, an Alawite responsible for the murder of thousands of Syrian Sunnis (Palestinians are also Sunnis), is proving an embarrassment.

Assad's departure will be a mixed blessing for Israel. While supportive of Hezbollah's provocations across the Lebanese border with Israel, Assad has always sought to avoid a direct conflict with Israel. It will take years before calm is restored in Syria, and during the interim period when the Sunnis consolidate power, their ability to initiate hostilities against Israel will be limited. Ultimately, however, all good things come to an end.

Blair Cautions Obama and Her Hideousness, Catherine Ashton, on Iran

As her Hideousness, Catherine Ashton, poses smiling (fortunately for us with her mouth closed) beside her Iranian counterpart at talks in Istanbul aimed at curbing the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons ambitions, Tony Blair had this to say about Iran:

"'It [Iran] has to be confronted and changed. Iran is a looming challenge. It is negative and destabilizing. It supports terrorists,' said Blair on Friday during his remarks at the Chilcot inquiry, the British inquiry into the war in Iraq.

'I say this to you with all of the passion I possibly can -- at some point the West has to get out of what I think is a wretched policy or posture of apology for believing that we are causing what the Iranians are doing, or what these extremists are doing,' said Blair who serves as the Quartet representative to the Middle East.

Blair stated that he could see the 'impact and the influence of Iran everywhere.'"

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=204743

Is Blair correct? Can the impact and influence of Iran be felt everywhere? You darn well better believe it.

As previously observed in this blog, the West is well on its way to losing Jordan. (See: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2010/12/war-in-middle-east-obama-losing-jordan.html). Not surprisingly, protestors, including members of the Muslim Brotherhood, took to Jordan's streets on Friday, demanding that the government step down.

Also, yesterday, Walid Jumblatt, head of Lebanon's Druze, ominously declared on Friday that he would side with Syria and Hezbollah, i.e. Iran, in forming a new Lebanese government. Jumblatt, the ultimate survivor and weathervane in Lebanon, has acknowledged that he is fearful that Hezbollah might seek to harm Lebanon's Druze minority (see: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=204692) and has abandoned Saad Hariri.

How long until Obama gets tough? Is he even capable of standing up to Ahmadinejad? As further stated by Blair:

"President Obama - not President Bush - goes in March 2009 to Cairo, right in the heart of Islam. He makes a speech where he says effectively 'put aside the Bush era, I'm now offering the hand of friendship, you, Iran can come into partnership, you are an ancient, proud civilisation.'

What's the response he gets? They carry on with the terrorism, they carry on with the destabilisation, they carry on with the nuclear weapons.

At some point we have to get our head out of the sand and understand they are going to carry on with this."

Stay tuned . . .

Take the Middle East IQ Test: Are You Smarter Than Obama?

So you think you know a lot about the Middle East? Okay, today you're going to match wits with the patented, JG Caesarea, Middle East IQ Test in order to determine if you're smarter than President Obama. Ready for the first question? Here it comes:

What was the most significant event that transpired last week in the Middle East?

By any chance, was your initial thought: The announcement by the Jerusalem district planning commission to approve the construction of 1,600 housing units in the Ramat Shlomo neighborhood of East Jerusalem during U.S. Vice President Biden's visit to Israel? Sorry, but it's already a non-event, notwithstanding Ambassador Mike Oren's characterization of the occurrence as the biggest U.S./Israel crisis in the past 35 years. Had it not been for: 1) Netanyahu's failure to nip the problem in the bud (he obviously didn't take Leadership 101, see: http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/search/label/leadership) and, 2) the decision of the boys from Chicago to milk this "crisis" for all it's worth in order to ring concessions from the Israelis, this non-event would have been yesterday's news. PR man Axelrod, however, sees Ramat Shlomo as an opportunity to squeeze the Israelis into being more amenable to Palestinian demands, but what Axelrod and friends still don't understand is that no matter what Israel is willing to concede, the graft-ridden Palestinian Authority is not ready to acknowledge Israel's right to exist.

What else happened last week? On Saturday night, Walid Jumblatt, Lebanese Druze leader and head of the Progressive Socialist party, issued a formal apology to Syrian President Bashar Assad for past criticism of Bashar. Walid Jumblatt, whose father, Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt, was murdered by the Syrians in 1977 upon orders of Bashar's father, Hafez al-Assad, and who for many years had been allied with Western-leaning politicians in Lebanon, is now suing for peace with the tyrannical Syrian regime:

"One of Syria’s harshest critics in Lebanon in the past, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader MP Walid Jumblatt said Saturday his criticism of Syrian President Bashar Assad was 'improper' as he called for a new page in relations between the two countries.

Jumblatt’s harshest verbal attack against Assad came on February 14, 2007, in a speech marking former Premier Rafik Hariri’s assassination, calling the Syrian leader a 'snake' and a 'tyrant' and demanding revenge against him.

'These comments were improper, unfamiliar and unsuited to political ethics,' Jumblatt said in a live interview with Al-Jazeera satellite channel late Saturday.

. . . .

Jumblatt was a major figure of the March 14 alliance that led massive street protests to demand the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon following Hariri’s assassination.

The Syrians pulled their army out of Lebanon in April 2005 ending nearly three decades of domination of their smaller neighbor. After the 2005 break with Damascus, Jumblatt became a staunch critic of Syria in Lebanon, calling for the overthrow of Assad’s regime and blaming Syria for the 1977 killing of his father."

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=112734

Jumblatt's overtures to Syria come on the heels of the December 2009 visit to Syria of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, whose father, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was assassinated in 2005 upon orders of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Following Obama's recent overtures to Damascus by way of appointment of a new ambassador to Syria, a post left vacant for five years following Rafik Hariri's assassination, both Saad Hariri and pragmatist Jumblatt now feel they have no choice other than to bow to a monster no longer to be kept in check by the U.S.

So what was the most significant piece of Middle East news last week? Yes, you're right, Jumblatt's apology to Assad, and indeed, you know more about the Middle East than Obama. What? I cheated and handed you the answer? I have news for you (something else that Obama and friends have yet to discover): As you should now know from the above, no one plays fair in the Middle East.

More patented, JG Caesarea, Middle East IQ Test questions to follow in the future.