The War in the Middle East: Obama Losing Jordan

There is an ongoing war in the Middle East between Iran and the U.S., which, as yet, has not involved guns and bullets. An ambitious Iran intent on regional hegemony, incessantly snorts in bellicose fashion as it attempts to intimidate its Arab neighbors into submission. Moreover, as was revealed by WikiLeaks and has been stated often in this blog, America's Arab allies - Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates - are all running scared, attempting to determine in whose favor the confrontation is trending, while occasionally suggesting that they are prepared to implement atomic development programs of their own.

Hesitant to confront Iran and belatedly limiting his opposition to sanctions that have been largely ignored by countries with their own agendas such as China and Turkey, Obama may soon watch as Jordan defects from the West. As reported by Jamal Halaby of the Associated Press:

"Jordan's King Abdullah II said Sunday he was seeking 'practical steps' to improve his frosty relations with Iran, a contrast to his regime's frequent criticism of Iran's policies.

The call came in a closed-door meeting with Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, director of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's office, Abdullah's Royal Court said in a statement.

Abdullah has been one of Iran's harshest critics in recent years, warning that its growing influence in the region could undermine him and other pro-American moderates.

The Royal Court statement said Abdullah accepted Ahmadinejad's invitation to visit Tehran soon, but no date was set.

. . . .

In U.S. cables released by WikiLeaks, U.S. Ambassador to Jordan Stephen Beecroft quoted Jordanian officials describing Iran as an 'octopus' whose tentacles 'reach out insidiously to manipulate, foment, and undermine the best laid plans of the West and regional moderates.'"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101212/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_jordan_iran

Obama is perceived by Jordan as a weakling prepared to sell out America's friends, and notwithstanding its hatred of the Iranian "Octopus", Jordan is now hedging its bets.

A real war with guns and bullets involving an Iranian proxy? Hezbollah is demanding that Lebanon ignore the forthcoming conclusions of the U.N. tribunal investigating the murder by Hezbollah of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri (see: http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/mess-report/hezbollah-threatens-new-era-for-resistance-unless-lebanon-shuns-hariri-tribunal-1.330110), and whether publication of the U.N.'s determinations leads to a coup d'état or civil war in Lebanon, or possibly a confrontation with Israel intended to distract the Arab street, is anyone's bet.

The Obama Middle East Peace Initiative: Destined to Fail

There were some glorious photo ops in Washington last week with Obama, Netanyahu, Abbas, Mubarak and King Abdullah II striding down long carpeted corridors wearing serious faces. Hillary, seated between Netanyahu and Abbas, smiled like the Cheshire cat. Tony Blair, flown into town as the representative of the Quartet, added his imprimatur to the festivities. But the necessary groundwork had not been laid by the bungling Obama administration, and all, unfortunately, is destined to come to naught.

The Palestinian Authority, i.e. Fatah, does not want an agreement, at least not now, and until they are ready, it simply isn't going to happen, no matter what goodies Washington offers them. Why? Because if you want peace in the Middle East, you need to be willing to die for peace. Anwar Sadat died for peace. King Hussein of Jordan proclaimed his readiness to die as a martyr for peace. Abbas, on the other hand, is planning to die peacefully in his bed, many years hence.

Examine the contradictory confused responses coming from Fatah in the aftermath of the Washington hafla (Arabic for party or celebration). Already being branded a traitor, Abbas is searching under the carpet for an excuse to abandon the talks. On Monday, Palestinian newspaper Al Quds reported that Abbas has now stated that if pressured on borders and refugees, he "will take his bags and leave," and Netanyahu was forced to call Abbas to coax him back to the negotiating table (http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=187294&R=R1).

Meanwhile, Abbas's cronies also can't decide on which side of the fence they should be standing:

"Following last week’s ceremony in Washington, the chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, gave a series of interviews to various media outlets.

In one interview, he was quoted as saying that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was not serious about reaching peace with the Palestinians and that his only goal was to waste time. Erekat later issued a denial, saying his words had been taken out of context.

* * * *

Making statements and denying them, often within hours, has become almost a daily event in the politics of the PA. The latest example was that of Fatah’s Muhammad Dahlan, who, in an interview with an Arab newspaper on Sunday, denounced Netanyahu as a 'swindler.'

After his remarks were published in Israel, the former security commander rushed to issue a denial, claiming that his words had been taken out of context."

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=187357

Iran and Syria, via their proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, will be fighting tooth and nail against any potential peace arrangement, and it is no accident that a Qassam rocket fell on the southern Israeli town of Sderot this morning.

Syria has historically opposed any Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement, which comes, in their belief, at the expense of a Syrian-Israeli arrangement, which, again in their belief, takes precedence.

But the bigger picture involves Iranian, i.e. Shiite, nuclear aspirations and the opposition of the Sunni Arab bloc to any attempt by Tehran to achieve hegemony in the region. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan are all callous to Palestinian interests, and Abbas for them is no more than an expendable pawn.

Obama specializes in photo ops, and wonderful photographs were taken of the American president pretending to play diplomat extraordinaire. However, expectations on the Palestinian street have now been created, and when the talks ultimately fail, we will be hearing in the suks of Ramallah, Hebron and Nablus, "I told you so."

Will we then see a resurgence of Hamas? A new intifada? I hope not.