Today for the first time, rebels in Syria fired back at the Syrian army when it attempted to enter Homs. After more than two months of peaceful protests in which more than 1,000 civilians have been murdered by Assad's security forces with the assistance of Hezbollah and Iran, the struggle has taken a new turn. As I have stated in the past, Assad will ultimately be forced to flee Syria.
Meanwhile, Obama and Hillary remain by and large silent in the face of this human tragedy. I understand that Obama is still sulking from his encounter with Netanyahu in Washington, and for this reason pointedly refused to intervene on Israel's behalf at last week's G8 summit, where Canada, but not the U.S., objected to a statement linking peace with the Palestinians to the 1967 lines.
In Damascus, where Hamas has its headquarters, Khaled Mashaal is preparing to move the terrorist organization's political wing to Qatar. Qatar, however, is refusing to host its military wing.
Hezbollah, which is armed by Syria and Iran, is also growing alarmed. Without Assad's patronage, Hezbollah's supremacy over Lebanon is threatened.
This coming Friday promises a bloodbath in Syria. Assad for his part is seeking to distract public opinion by again sending Palestinians to crash the Israeli border with Lebanon and Syria on the June 6, 1967 anniversary of the Six Day War (in Arabic, Yawm an-Naksa or "day of the setback").
Turkey, which is holding elections on June 12, is largely ignoring events in neighboring Syria, and its political leadership, busy seeking votes, is focusing on a new flotilla to be sent to break the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza in the third week of June.
Scrutinizing events in Syria and fearful for his own neck, Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, has inked a unity pact with Hamas and now is in talks with Islamic Jihad.
Stay tuned.
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Given Syria's repressive record - no correct that - brutally repressive record - it might take a few more weeks for the armed opposition to spread to the point of regime overthrow or civil war. One must remember that a large % of the population work for the regime as "ears" or affiliated Baath party members who have strong vested interest in maintaining this minority regime.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise I applaud the clarity of your analysis.