Mohamed ElBaradei: A Modern-Day Ataturk or a Modern-Day Kerensky?

Yesterday, in a New York Times op-ed entitled "Hosni Mubarak Agonistes" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/opinion/04iht-edcohen04.html), Roger Cohen wrote:

"Already we hear the predictable warnings from Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu: This could be Iran 1979, a revolution for freedom that installs the Islamists. But this is not 1979, and Egypt’s Facebook-adept youth are not lining up behind the Muslim Brotherhood, itself scarcely a band of fanatics."

The Muslim Brotherhood is "scarcely a band of fanatics"? Consider the following excerpts from an interview with Muhammad Ghanem, Muslim Brotherhood representative in London, which aired on Al-Alam TV on January 30, 2011:

"I don't want to speak ill of anyone, but Hosni Mubarak will not hesitate to kill the entire Egyptian people in order to remain in power. This is a maneuver of which we must beware. Hosni Mubarak is trying to stabilize his position. He is in Sharm Al-Sheik, protected by the Zionists, by the state of Israel. There is a helicopter ready to fly him to Israel.

. . . .

I am absolutely certain that this revolution will not die, and that the next step must be one of civil disobedience. This civil disobedience will generate strife among the Egyptians. This disobedience must include halting passage through the Suez Canal, stopping the supply of petroleum and natural gas to Israel, and preparing for war with Israel."

http://m.memri.org/14500/show/dabaeba7e528a6b6a7ab7792df08e455&t=20320d97cb30b6845cb6422bedb5dfbe

Heck, shut down the Suez Canal and war with Israel? Nothing at all "fanatic" about that.

Today, in an op-ed from Cairo entitled "We the Egyptian People" (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/05/opinion/05iht-edcohen05.html?hp), Cohen interviews the "managing director of a publishing company" (another very representative example of the Egyptian populace) and continues to spout twaddle:

"Islamic parties can run thriving economies and democracies like Turkey’s".

No mention of course of the "democratic" takeover of Gaza by Hamas. No mention of course of the "democratic" takeover of Lebanon by Hezbollah.

Cohen would like to make the case that ElBaradei is a modern-day Ataturk? No way, Jose! On the other hand, he could well prove to be a modern-day Kerensky.

Alexander Kerensky, whose goal was to bring a Western-style constitutional democracy to Russia, helped lead the February Revolution of 1917 against the czar, but the Kerensky government was toppled by the Bolshevik's October Revolution of 1917.

Like the Bolsheviks in 1917, the Muslim Brotherhood, anything but stupid, is biding its time. Even should there be elections in Egypt, unemployment, illiteracy, a spiraling birth rate, and the prevalence of intolerance (as noted in my prior blog entry, the Pew Research Center, http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/, has determined that three-quarters of Muslims in Egypt favor stoning people who commit adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery, and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion) spell an early demise to democracy.

Even if ElBaradei is able to oversee a transitional government in Egypt, it will be years before tourism returns to Egypt, unemployment will not improve, and my guess is that he will ultimately again be destined for exile - much like Alexander Kerensky, who died in New York City in 1970.