New York Times: Obama Should Bribe Pakistan to Act Against Osama

In a December 8 editorial entitled "Pakistan and the War", The New York Times editorial board writes:

"[T]here is no chance of defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda unless Pakistan’s leaders stop temporizing (and in some cases collaborating) and get fully into the fight.

. . . .

Drones won’t be enough. Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders must finally be persuaded that this is not just America’s war, it is central to their survival. In recent months, the Pakistan Army has gone after Taliban fighters in the Swat Valley and Waziristan. Yet the Army leadership is refusing to strike at the heart of the Taliban command in Baluchistan Province.

In part, they are hesitating because of legitimate fears of retaliation. But there are also many Pakistani officials — and not just in the intelligence services — that continue to see the Taliban as an ally and long-term proxy to limit India’s influence in Afghanistan."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/08/opinion/08tue1.html

The Times acknowledges Obama's "private promise" to Pakistan of “unlimited potential” pursuant to which "Washington would consider any proposal Islamabad puts on the table." The Times also asks Obama to "press Congress to pass long-stalled legislation to establish special trade preference zones in Pakistan."

In short, The Times is asking Obama to bribe Pakistan's military and civilian leaders into acting against Osama. Sorry, it isn't going to work. The Pakistanis will, however, accept American money while continuing to play one side against the other.

First, an ugly unspoken truth: If Pakistan wanted bin Laden's head, he would have died long ago. I'm not saying that Pakistan's labyrinthine intelligence knows the whereabouts of bin Laden every hour and every day, but they know where to reach him, and for now, he better serves their interests alive and kicking. No bin Laden, no American money or U.S. counterbalance in Pakistan's ongoing conflict with India.

Moreover, bin Laden is not unpopular in Pakistan. His poll numbers go up and down (depending on the polling organization and the timing of the poll, i.e. whether the statistics were gathered after a particularly gruesome suicide bombing), but some U.S. presidents would be delighted to maintain his core backing.

Also, bin Laden makes a point of reminding the authorities in Pakistan not to prosecute their "war" against the Taliban beyond prescribed bounds. Observe yesterday's bombing:

"MULTAN: Two suicide attackers launched a gun-and-bomb assault on the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) building here on Tuesday and killed at least eight people and injured over 45. The attackers also died.

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the attacks. The assailants, armed with rocket-propelled guns and hand grenades and riding a single-cabin vehicle, first fired on policemen at a checkpoint near the ISI regional headquarters.

. . . .

Talking to Dawn on phone from an unspecified place, TTP spokesman Azam Tariq said their men had carried out the attacks in Multan. ‘Our people will not spare security personnel and government officials if the army continues operation in Malakand, Waziristan, Orakzai and Kurram agencies,’ he said, warning that the Taliban would carry out more such attacks across the country."

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/provinces/07-bomb-explosion-in-multan-cantonment-ha-10

Bottom line: Action taken by Pakistan against the Taliban will be just enough to keep U.S. dollars flowing without tipping what for them is a strategic balance.