Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah had dinner together yesterday evening in Damascus. Although the lamb was tasty, you can be certain that the conversation focused on impending war with Israel.
What is Obama doing to derail this axis? As earlier noted, the U.S. is sending an ambassador to Syria after a 5-year hiatus and looks forward to "working constructively with Syria" (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2010/02/effectuating-obama-doctrine-new-us.html). Regrettably, the naivete, dilly-dallying, and appeasement which characterize the Obama administration's foreign policy will only hasten the advent of the next Middle East war.
Will Israel's next conflict be one-front, two-front, three-front or four-front (http://jgcaesarea.blogspot.com/2010/01/will-iran-attack-israel-in-2010.html)? Much depends on whether Assad will renege on his promises to Nasrallah and watch the destruction of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal from the sidelines. Israel learned the lessons of the Winograd Report, and this will not be a prolonged conflict.
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According to your beloved NY Times Iran has recently moved it's stockpile of low enriched uranium from it's underground shelters to the surface "effectively painting a bullseye on it". An attempt to lure Israel in some kind of trap? Does Iran really think it can carry out it's threat to annihilate Israel? Based on what, the Arab record of conventional warfare against Israel? Or Iran's against Iraq? Other explanations the NY Times comes up with are triggering a conflict for the sake of national unity, a move to get a better deal in negotiations, or just a logistical screw up. If it really is a screw up it is of course not completely inconceivable that Israel might take advantage of it. But what if it's a trap after all? Boy am I glad I don't have to make decisions like that...
ReplyDeleteCome to think of it: was the reason for the "banquet from hell" maybe that Iran's nuclear program is entering a vulnerable phase and it needs to let Israel know that the forces of hate are united against it? Wonder what the fuss is all about though. Seems like they have a very convenient ally in the White house...
ReplyDeleteChris, you are indeed correct in linking the "banquet from hell" with Iran's decision to expose its stockpile of uranium. Perhaps Iran's enrichment program has encountered unforeseen technical difficulties, and given internal unrest, it has been decided that a war with Israel currently suits Ahmadinejad's interests. Does Israel bite at the bait? Not likely.
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