"The dispatch of American naval vessels to the sea off Libya is a useful step to show resolve. So are sanctions. A no-fly zone would have only a small impact on the fighting, but it would be a powerful signal to the Libyan military to stand down. Amr Moussa, the secretary general of the Arab League, said Wednesday that the Arab League and African Union might work together to impose a no-fly zone, and Western countries should cooperate closely with them on the idea. We could also try to disrupt Libya’s military communications.
One possible solution to the crisis being discussed within Libya is for Colonel Qaddafi, who isn’t actually president or prime minister, to retire with his sons to his hometown of Sirte and relinquish power to his longtime friend, Mohamed al-Zwai, who is technically head of state. Mr. Zwai, the former ambassador to Britain, has a reputation as a pragmatist and might then be able to bring in rival groups and tribes and stitch the country back together again in a more democratic way. It’s a long shot but worth exploring — and it’s feasible only if Colonel Qaddafi and his friends believe that otherwise they are going down."
Unfortunately, entirely absent from Kristof's discussion of how to remove Qaddafi is a discussion of Libya's tribal structure and loyalties.
There is no mention in Kristof's op-ed concerning the allegiance between Qaddafi's tribe, the Gaddafa, and the Warfalla, and their fealty to Qaddafi, which overrides any human rights concerns that they might feel.
Sadly, there is no indication whatsoever in Kristof's piece how these tribal loyalties and jealousies can be managed in order to dislodge this maniacal tyrant.
Libya's tribal structure is incomprehensible to much of the West, and Nicholas still has years of homework to do before proffering advice how to "tackle" Qaddafi.
Okay, Jeffrey, if you're so smart, what is your advice how to handle this situation? I'm not so smart, but the answer in a nutshell: Work the tribal divisions. Immediately assist in establishing and recognizing an alternative government. And if called upon to do so by this alternative government, destroy, with the Arab League's approval, Qaddafi's military airfields. This will also send a much needed, tacit message to Ahmadinejad. Are you listening, Langley? Susan and Samantha lack the necessary gumption.
Hi, Jeffrey
ReplyDeleteBefore answering, what to do, please, answer a simpler question: is there an example when a tribal society has some form of democracy? As far as I know, there are two types of tribal societies: it is either a tyranny (plenty of Arab examples), or virtual anarchy with a weak center (as Afghanistan, Yemen). If there are only these two options for Libya, what is the point of getting involved in this? I think, you can not make Europeans or Americans or Jews out of tribal people. They will kill each other time to time, that is how power struggle goes in this culture.
UK's Telegraph (and Mirror) doing a better job of covering Libya than anyone at the NYT. Both reported yesterday that Egyptian Special Forces flowing into Libya.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8361279/How-Libyas-tribes-will-decide-Gaddafis-fate.html
Someone needs to stop Qaddafi's air force from successfully bombing the water tunnels that supply Benghazi.
no time to waste - for once, I am counting on Egypt, and Algeria.
K2K