Friday, May 18, 2012

Paul Krugman, "Apocalypse Fairly Soon": Is the Euro a Failed Experiment?

In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "Apocalypse Fairly Soon" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/opinion/krugman-apocalypse-fairly-soon.html), Paul Krugman warns of imminent failure of the euro. Observing that Greek voters are dismayed by 22% unemployment and that Greece can’t adopt the austerity policies demanded by Germany and the European Central Bank, Krugman writes:

"Right now, Greece is experiencing what’s being called a 'bank jog' — a somewhat slow-motion bank run, as more and more depositors pull out their cash in anticipation of a possible Greek exit from the euro. Europe’s central bank is, in effect, financing this bank run by lending Greece the necessary euros; if and (probably) when the central bank decides it can lend no more, Greece will be forced to abandon the euro and issue its own currency again."


Greece will be forced to issue its own currency again? I suppose this is a euphemism for printing drachmas, which doesn't solve the underlying problems of debt and unemployment. Sure, there might be some very short-term stimulus, but Greece will be unable to borrow at reasonable rates, and this is no more than a formula for hyperinflation, continuing high rates of unemployment, and chaos.

Warning that if Greece abandons the euro, additional problems could erupt in Spain and Italy, Krugman demands that the European Central Bank cease obsessing over price stability and even "encourage several years of 3 percent or 4 percent inflation." Krugman concludes:

"Failure of the euro would amount to a huge defeat for the broader European project, the attempt to bring peace, prosperity and democracy to a continent with a terrible history. It would also have much the same effect that the failure of austerity is having in Greece, discrediting the political mainstream and empowering extremists."

Politically incorrect queries: Is there a continent, other than Antarctica, without a "terrible history"? Was it ever realistic to meld the economies of Germany with those of Greece, Spain and Portugal? Is Europe as a whole in unremitting decline, owing to a host of factors, including falling birth rates and the absorption of uneducated immigrant populations, which are contributing significantly to unemployment?

Spend to pull Europe out of its economic crisis? I don't think it will help.

1 comment:

  1. Population growth,new industry,new markets....."It's not "Go west", it's "Go east,young man".Even there,things will begin to tighten.The Chinese government,for example,has let industry develop freely,with little impediment or taxation.Policy is now shifting-the government is stepping up to the plate,and saying they want their share of the gravy train.

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