I will do this by reciting a story:
Once upon a time in a distant kingdom many years ago, an aging monarch called for his two sons and declared: "I grow old, my bones ache, and the time is near to select a successor. He who shows me that which is most wondrous on this earth before I die shall inherit the throne."
Without a moment to lose, his older son sent his vassals around the kingdom with instructions to gather all that was novel: plants, animals and minerals. The shipments of goods were brought back to large warehouses, where teams of slaves began grinding and mixing these items in every imaginable combination and seeing what resulted. Indeed, the initial results were impressive: The older son brought to his father new ointments, dyes, flavors and fragrances.
But after a year, the results of the older son's efforts dwindled, and he sent his vassals to all corners of the world to bring back new materials for novel concoctions. And so as not to take any chances, he assigned new slaves to the task of combining these materials and worked them harder than ever, day and night. Again, these combinations of flowers and snake eyes initially yielded new products of marvelous utility, but ultimately, no matter what his vassals found, and no matter how hard his slaves worked, nothing new emerged.
Meanwhile, the king's younger son had decided upon a different route. The younger son gathered together all of the kingdom's brightest men and women and instructed them to present him with a theory of matter. After many months these wise persons showed the younger prince a model of what they called an atom, comprised of protons, neutrons and electrons. There were no wondrous products to behold, but the younger prince persisted in his path.
Some time afterwards, the wise persons informed the younger prince that they had devised a periodic table, and that they had even discovered new elements whose existence they had predicted, but still there were no wondrous products to exhibit before the king.
Later, the wise persons told the younger prince that they now knew how elements combine into molecules. The younger prince's eyes sparkled with excitement, but those around him said, "That worthless knowledge and five pieces of bronze will get you on a donkey to Damascus."
After many years, the king, gray and fragile, slipped on the palace floor and broke his hip. His older son quickly sent a litter and servants, who would bear the king wherever he wanted. However, his younger son, whose wise persons had discovered that toxic toluene can be compounded into toluene diisocyanate, which can be compounded into polyurethane, and which can be safely used to build replacement hip joints, had something else to offer.
Needless to say, the king underwent successful hip replacement surgery, and remained spry and active for many years thereafter, and you know which son inherited the kingdom.
Now consider Big Pharma's R&D, much of which is premised upon building ever larger libraries of substances thrown at drug targets at ever higher speeds. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time before Big Pharma realizes that their bottom lines cannot be saved by mergers aimed at creating a semblance of a pipeline and reducing redundant staff, and that instead they will need to choose Compugen's scientific understanding to create the therapeutics and diagnostics of the future.
[As noted in a prior blog entry, I am a Compugen shareholder, this blog entry is not a recommendation to buy or sell Compugen shares, and in mid-September 2009 I began work as a part-time external consultant to Compugen. The opinions expressed herein are mine and not necessarily those of Compugen.]
Could not stop laughing - thanks, Jeffrey! It is good to start a day with lough.
ReplyDeleteAbout Big Pharma R&D - they ain't that stupid, to try every possible combination. They do helpful modeling too - I did it myself. Traditionally, drugs are existing small molecules. Compugen tries to build bionics (I think, this is the name). Pharma does it too now - especially, because they are harder to be reproduced by competitors. They can keep price high longer.