- Israeli Minister-without-Portfolio Yossi Peled claimed on Saturday that a second war with Hezbollah is inevitable.
- On Saturday night, within hours of Peled's assertion, Prime Minister Netanyahu's Office stated that Israel "is not seeking a confrontation with anyone."
- Today OC Northern Command Gadi Eizenkot said that reports of tensions in the North have no basis, but that Hezbollah has rearmed itself notwithstanding UN Resolution 1701.
- Earlier this morning, outgoing UNIFIL Commander General Claudio Graziano denied that arms had been smuggled to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, notwithstanding the recent explosion of a weapons cache six miles from the Israeli border in the Lebanese town of Hirbat Salim. Graziano criticized Israel for violating Lebanese airspace while photographing Hezbollah weapons caches and labeled such overflights "humiliating" for Lebanon.
The overflights are "humiliating" for Lebanon? I wonder how Graziano characterizes the 40,000 rockets, including Iranian-made Fajr 3 missiles that carry 100-pound warheads, being aimed by Hezbollah at Israeli population centers?
Humiliating to UNIFIL more likely because the planes spot the failure of their mission. Hezbullah is for now Iran's loaded gun to Israel's head in case they decide to do something foolish like attacking it's nuclear program. I don't expect they will move before Iran has build up a nuclear capability. By then Israel's neighbours will be drawn into Teheran's gravity and they will probably make their move together.
ReplyDeleteChris, you're correct: Israel is indeed facing a four-front war.
ReplyDeleteNote that Egypt's Mubarak today acknowledged construction of the underground steel wall along the border with Gaza. Will this foil further Iranian arms shipments to Hamas and at least keep Hamas out of any future conflagration?
The whole underground steel wall concept baffles me. Seems to me that walls only work if you control both sides like the Westbank wall, but can you really stop the Gazans from blow torching their way through some steel plate if you don't control Gaza? Still, it may be part of a system that eludes me of course. Maybe you have an idea how a wall like that can stop Hamas from rearming itself?
ReplyDeleteAs for Hamas' role in a future conflict: the big question I guess is what will happen to Mubarak's regime once Iran establishes itself as some kind of regional islamist superpower. If the brotherhood takes over Hamas will be just a small part in a larger islamist army.
Mubarak will be 82-years-old in May, and much uncertainty surrounds his succession. Will he successfully pass the government over to his son, Gamal?
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