Israel has announced the successful testing of its Iron Dome missile defense system, and units will be deployed along the Gaza border in mid-2010. After the IDF completes deployment of the system along the Gaza border, the system will also be installed along the border with Lebanon.
Meanwhile, it is no accident that there has been renewed rocket fire into Israel from Gaza in recent days. (Where is Goldstone?) Hamas took great pains to smuggle a fresh supply of rockets into Gaza after Operation Cast Lead, and Iron Dome's success obviously has Hamas worried: Its new arsenal of rockets could soon be rendered harmless.
In addition, Egypt is erecting an underground steel wall to prevent smuggling into the Strip, and after an Egyptian border guard was killed by a Hamas sniper this past week, it will become increasingly difficult for Hamas to receive advanced weaponry from their Iranian benefactors.
Will Hamas now seek to provoke another round of fighting with Israel before Iron Dome becomes operative? Was it a mistake for Israel to announce the success of the system prior to implementation? Time will tell.
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As usual the story behind the stories is a guessing game. Why the renewed rocket fire? For Hamas to have their money's worth before Iron Dome renders their missiles obsolete? Is Israel really planning on spending scores of $50k Tamir Missiles at the relatively ineffective Hamas diy jobs? my guess is that Hamas is trying to provoke the IDF into a demonstration of it's much touted Iron Dome technology. Knowing how effective the system is is of crucial importance for their Iranian masters and their Russian allies. Putin for one seems obsessed with the balance of threat and totally freaks whenever somebody makes an effort to disturb it. Israel is no doubt aware of this and will probably keep demonstrations (and embarrassments?) to a minimum but at some point it's population will start to wonder why Iron Dome isn't protecting them as advertised. It's just a matter of keep on pushing for Hamas. Games...
ReplyDeleteThe Egyptian underground steel wall: this has to be a joke right? Or don't they have plasma torches in the Gaza strip? This type of news that seems to makes no sense really makes me wonder what's really going on...
Thanks for your comment, Chris.
ReplyDeleteThe Tamirs are expensive; however, Iron Dome is intended only to shoot down rockets which will fall on populated areas. Consider the 2010 Israeli defense budget of more than $14 billion and the savings Iron Dome will bring if a second ground engagement in Gaza is avoided. Consider also the system's export value, if successfully demonstrated in the field and improved with experience.
I guess theoretically Iron Dome could prevent a Cast Lead 2 if it works like advertised. Somehow I wonder about that though. Notice that in a real life conflict it's advanced Barak anti missile system couldn't safe the Israeli corvette Ahi Hanit from an Iranian made Silkworm missile. In the case of Kassams from Gaza it would really be something if Iron Dome managed to intercept them during their 20 second low altitude flight before they hit Sderot, but is that really possible even not taking the tremendous cost into account? And what about volleys of Kassams, especially when the Palestinians restore the balance of terror by coming up with a more accurate model so every single one of them needs to be intercepted?
ReplyDeleteSeems to me Iron Dome may have a fair chance against heavier longer range missiles like the Grads, but even so Hizbullah alone has over 40.000 missiles in their arsenal and who knows how many more the Syrians and the Iranians have. In case of a full scale confrontation the best Israel could hope for is an effective defence of some strategic assets like Dimona and military installations. So my guess is that the only purpose for Iron Dome is at a strategic level. It tells potential aggressors that a crippling missile assault may not be an option. Very important may be that it tells Iran that a third strike capability deterrence may not work to avoid an Israeli counterstrike following an act of nuclear terrorism. But even so it will leave the civil population largely exposed to massive conventional missile attacks.
Still, with a nuclear arms race following a nuclear Iran on the horizon the export value argument for the Iron Dome technology seems very valid.
Chris, the Israeli Navy ship Hanit never activated its anti-missile defense, a failure described in the Winograd Commission report.
ReplyDeleteAn Israeli warship that fails to activate it's defence systems while in a war zone? Well...that would explain it...I guess...Still...my point was that I have doubts that ABM systems really work at a tactical level and the Hanit case doesn't really help to take away my doubts. The whole missiles stopping missiles thing seems like a huge technological challenge to me, so at this point I stick to my theory that ABM systems are largely a strategic/propaganda tool that is used in the balance of threat game that is so all important in middle east politics. Of course...Iron Dome might surprise me in the near future...
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