David Brooks is convinced that Donald Trump will not win the Republican nomination for president. Brooks explains in his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "No, Donald Trump Won’t Win":
"When campaigns enter that final month, voters tend to gravitate toward the person who seems most orderly. As the primary season advances, voters’ tolerance for risk declines. They focus on the potential downsides of each contender and wonder, Could this person make things even worse?
When this mental shift happens, I suspect Trump will slide. All the traits that seem charming will suddenly seem risky. The voters’ hopes for transformation will give way to a fear of chaos. When the polls shift from registered voters to likely voters, cautious party loyalists will make up a greater share of those counted."
Barry Goldwater? George McGovern? Excuse me, David, but how the heck did either of these two gentlemen get nominated?
I do not share Brooks's belief in rational human behavior (the Democrats are dead set on nominating Hillary Clinton, who is commonly regarded as a "liar" and "untrustworthy"), but I still hope Brooks is right.
Meanwhile, in the nightmare scenario of Trump vs. Clinton, these two abominable alternatives are running neck-and-neck in the polls.