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Monday, August 24, 2015

Paul Krugman, "A Moveable Glut": I Prefer Chance the Gardener



In his latest New York Times op-ed entitled "A Moveable Glut," Paul Krugman ponders "Friday’s stock plunge" and asks, "What does it mean for the future?" Krugman declares, "Attempts to explain daily stock movements are usually foolish," and goes on to say, "what we’re seeing is what happens when too much money is chasing too few investment opportunities."

"Too few investment opportunities"? I don't think so. In fact, there is an almost infinite array of investment opportunities with different risks and different potential rates of return. But thanks anyway, Paul, for your kind thoughts.

But more to the point, how should one interpret a global investment panic of the kind that we are again witnessing today? Is the sky about to fall? I don't think so. Personally, over the course of my time on this planet, I have adopted the Chance the Gardener school of thought from Jerzy Kosinski's "Being There":

"In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again."

And as Chance further stated to the president, "As long as the roots are not severed, . . . all will be well in the garden."

Indeed, spring will return, given that such is the way of the world . . . until Iran builds its nuclear arsenal at which time all bets are off.

2 comments:

  1. "Attempts to explain daily stock movements are usually foolish,"
    Well, it's an early winter in China where the SSE composite index just fell 8.5% in a single day. The largest single day drop since 2007.

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  2. oops. Krugman should have waited,

    twentyminutes ago: the U.S. stock market plummeted in its opening with the Dow Jones industrial average losing more than 1,000 points, or 6%, in the opening moments.

    now only down 500 points.




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