David Brooks, "The Fertility Implosion": Israel Bucks the Trend

David Brooks has written another fascinating New York Times op-ed entitled "The Fertility Implosion" (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/opinion/brooks-the-fertility-implosion.html?ref=opinion), in which he describes declining birth rates throughout much of the world, particularly in the Muslim Middle East. Brooks writes:

"Usually, high religious observance and low income go along with high birthrates. But, according to the United States Census Bureau, Iran now has a similar birth rate to New England — which is the least fertile region in the U.S.

The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent. These are among the fastest declines in recorded history."

Brooks observes that from a long-term economic standpoint, "it’s better to have a growing work force, not one that’s shrinking compared with the number of retirees," and although not immune to the downturn, the US is faring better in this regard than much of the rest of the world:

"The U.S. population is increasing at every age level, thanks in part to immigration. America is aging, but not as fast as other countries.

. . . .

In the 21st century, the U.S. could be the slowly aging leader of a rapidly aging world."

Although Brooks does not delve in great depth into the reasons for declining fertility rates, it can be assumed that widespread availability of effective birth control methods and deteriorating global economic conditions have contributed profoundly to this trend.

Will the US become "the slowly aging leader of a rapidly aging world"? Consider Israel's fertility rates, which are actually on the rise over the past 20 years (http://www.cbs.gov.il/shnaton62/st03_13.pdf), notwithstanding declines in those rates within Israel's Jewish ultra-Orthodox and Muslim sectors. The reason, if I were to guess: Optimism spawned by economic growth and dynamism, notwithstanding a shaky security climate.